625
FXUS63 KABR 080252 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
852 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GLACIAL LAKES
REGION. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
0.25IN.
- NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 35 TO 45 MPH SATURDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL SD.
- TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN AROUND ZERO SUNDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE TUESDAY - FRIDAY
TIME FRAME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS,
HOURLY OBS, AS WELL AS LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. WEB CAMS ACROSS
CENTRAL SD REVEAL SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND IN SOME AREAS, WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.
STILL A BIT MORE SATURATION TO BE HAD FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST, BUT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SHOULD OCCUR LATER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
AS OF 20Z, A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF THE THE CWA, WITH
HOURLY TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS HAVE SETTLED OVER THE AREA, WITH THE HREF KEEPING THE CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, HAVE WENT A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NBM FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
THE AREA WILL HAVE DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM WYOMING AND ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT,
REACHING THE MISSOURI/IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS
QUICK MOVING DUE TO A 100+ MPH JET ALOFT. EVEN WITH THE FAST
PROGRESSION, NBM HAS A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TENTH OF INCH OF
QPF OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM HIGHWAY 212 SOUTH TO THE NEBRASKA
BORDER. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS ONLY INCREASE ITS QPF
OUTPUT, NOW SHOWING A QUARTER OF AN INCH SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOW MUCH
OF THE QPF FALLS AS SNOW, AND THE OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
HIGHMORE, EASTWARD TO REDFIELD, CLARK, AND WATERTOWN IS QUESTIONABLE
AT THIS TIME. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY WARM, OR ABOVE 40
DEGREES F OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. FOUR INCH SOIL TEMP FORECAST FROM
ECMWF SUGGEST GROUND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 DEGREES F WHILE IT
IS SNOWING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SNOWFALL RATE MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM GROUND, LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
DUSTING TO AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONCE THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL BE BREAK WITH
PCPN UNTIL ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. CENTRAL SD SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN,
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. GROUND TEMPERATURES
APPEAR COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, QPF
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM IS LOW, OR 0.05 OF AN INCH
OR LESS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SD ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
OCCURRING IN JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES. AS THE PREVIOUS AFD
MENTIONED, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
THE NBM 4.3 AND 5.0.
BEYOND SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW A 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO, TO THE LOW TEENS BOTH
NIGHTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH LIKELY LESS IN DURATION ACROSS KPIR. WILL LIKELY SEE A
MIX OF RA/SN MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH
SATURDAY. MORE LIKELY PREDOMINATELY SN ACROSS KABR/KATY, WITH MORE
OF A MIX POTENTIAL ACROSS KMBG/KPIR. MVFR VSBY EXPECTED IN AREAS
OF -SN, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT IFR VSBY IN AREAS OF SN.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...SD
AVIATION...TMT
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