099
FXUS63 KABR 110153 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
753 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE COTEAU
TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WITH
POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE TUESDAY - FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 742 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
LOW LEVEL WAA IS UNDERWAY. FOR THE NEXT 6 OR 7 HOURS, THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
AND A 40+KNOT SOUTHWEST WIND JUST A FEW HUNDRED METERS OFF THE
SURFACE, WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE WINDS/GUSTS ON AND EAST OF THE
LEE-SIDE SLOPE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SUBSIDE. THE WARM FRONT'S PASSAGE SHOULD TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST, EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF THE DOWNSLOPE WIND
POTENTIAL (LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z). ADVERTISING 20 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH AT TIMES IN A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSABR) FOR THE COTEAU COUNTIES IN THIS
CWA (MARSHALL, ROBERTS, GRANT AND DEUEL COUNTIES). THE NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WELL. NO UPDATES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE ON AN INCOMING
WARMER AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. A WARM FRONT,
CURRENTLY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN KICKS IN ON A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD STOP ANY FALL IN
TEMPERATURE READINGS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WE'LL
LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S THIS EVENING
AFTER SUNSET AND THEN STEADY OUT OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SET UP WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A DOWNSLOPING WIND EVENT THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST SD. ANTICIPATE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING AND PERSIST TO AROUND
08-09Z TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE/CAMS HAVE
LATCHED ONTO SOME HIGHER WIND VALUES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. WIND
GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 35-45 MPH WITH THE POTENTIALLY LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS THAN THAT. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTFUL WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE TYPICAL HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE IMPACTS THAT
STRONG WINDS POSE A THREAT TO.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS TURN
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT MUCH COOLER THAN
WHAT WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT, SO EXPECTING A WARM DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST TO MID TO UPPER 50
ACROSS CENTRAL SD. RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BEGIN A
STRETCH OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO DURING THIS STRETCH WITH THE CORE OF THE
WARMEST SET TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE WIDESPREAD DAYTIME TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S
ON FRIDAY. WE'LL ALSO LIKELY BE PICKING UP ON SOME HEALTHY SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATER THIS WEEK AND WITH THE WARM AND DRY TREND EXPECTED, WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE END OF
THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO REMAIN A BIT MORE MURKY. MODELS DO PROG AN
UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IN A SPLIT FLOW UPPER
PATTERN WITH A CUTOFF TYPE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS COULD PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCES FOR MOISTURE. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE INHERITED BROAD
BRUSHED ENSEMBLE GENERATED POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR (OVERCAST) HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE REGION, AND ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS THIS EVENING AT ALL FOUR
TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH AROUND TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
LATER TONIGHT, PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND WINDS ALOFT SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...10
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