792
FXUS63 KABR 111638 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING TO GENERATE 25 TO 35 MPH
WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMEST DAY IS FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS FROM 60 TO LOW 70S. 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ABOUT 5
DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS
MORNING, GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25-30 MPH IN SOME AREAS ALREADY. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY, BUT MILDER DAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO BEEF UP WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOME SPOTS ON ACCOUNT OF CURRENT OBS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
STILL LOOK GOOD AND ANY LEFTOVER SNOW COVER SHOULD ALL BE BUT GONE
BY THE END OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA, WITH
WEST NORTHWESTERLIES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE SISSETON HILLS
DOWNSLOPE IS ALSO WORKING ITS MAGIC WITH A PEAK GUST OF 63 MPH
EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 50S FOR PEEVER AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING. BUT THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL, WITH CAMS
SHOWING THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND CALMING OF THE DOWNSLOPE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY THIS MORNING, ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT WEST RIVER, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S, EVEN 63
DEGREES AT STURGIS. THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MILD AIRMASS ALOFT
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN +6 TO +12C FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO
THE WHITE RIVER RESPECTIVELY. THE CORE OF WARMEST AIR MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE CWA, WITH A COOLER ALBEIT STILL ABOVE
CLIMO AIRMASS OVERHEAD LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IS UNDER CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE MIXING. NAM BUFKIT MIXED WINDS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS TODAY AS WELL.
A RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT AND STARTS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS CLUSTER
ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (WITH
OUR CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW) WITH A TROUGH/LOW OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE PACIFIC.
HOWEVER, WE START TO LOSE CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BY DAY 4
(FRIDAY) AS THE ENSEMBLES START TO DIVERGE A BIT. FOR EXAMPLE,
CLUSTER 1, MADE UP OF MAJORITY EC/CANADIAN, AND CLUSTER 2 (MAJORITY
GFS) HAVE MORE OF A SPLIT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
DEEPER SOUTHERN WAVE. WHILE CLUSTER 2 (MAJORITY EC:40%) HAS MORE OF
A PHASED TROUGH WHILE CLUSTER 4 (GFS:20%) HAS THE NORTHERN WAVE MORE
ZONAL AND A DEEP LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST. BY DAY 5 (SATURDAY), WE
SEE EVEN MORE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW
FORMS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (CLUSTERS 2/3: MAJORITY CANADIAN) OR
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH AZ/MEXICO (CLUSTERS
1/3: MAJORITY EC/GFS). AS EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD DAY
6 AND ONWARD, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON EXACT OUTCOME OF
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT. THE TROUGH'S SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA, AND DEEPEN, WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER
~ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ENS SHOWING A
DEEPER LOW. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THIS LOW IN CANADA WILL TRACK EAST
THEN NORTHEAST AS A SERIES OF LOWS FORMS WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO
PASS OVER THE REGION WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO QUITE THE
MODELS SPREAD.
PRECIPITATION WISE, ENS IS MORE BULLISH ON WIDESPREAD QPF CHANCES
COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA AS RAIN, WITH METEOGRAMS INDICATING RAIN
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW OR WINTRY MIX TOWARDS THE NIGHT WHEN TEMPS
ARE COOL, WITH CHANCES AROUND 10% OR LESS OVERALL OVER THE CWA. IT
ALSO SHOWS PRECIP MORE PRE FRONTAL WHEREAS GEFS SHOWS PRECIP MORE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SD AND NORTHERN SD (POST FRONTAL), LEAVING
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL SD DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
INCONSISTENCY OVER THE AREA WHICH MAKES SENSE AS THERE IS QUITE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITY OF
QPF>0.10" THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS 15% OR LESS GEFS AND UP TO 30%
ENS, HIGHEST OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. NBM KEEPS POPS LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, AT ABOUT 15% OR LESS WITH QPF>0.10" AT 20-
30%. SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS MENTIONED,
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOK POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO EVEN THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD, WHICH COULD FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS. AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S ON
SATURDAY AND 40S/50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE FOR THE DAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...07
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