779
FXUS63 KABR 112112
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
312 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS TO DEVELOP.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WHICH IS CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCALES.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES(20%-25%) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
AS OF THE 3 PM CST HOUR, SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. WE'RE SEEING JUST A
FEW HIGH CIRRUS MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WE SAW A COLD FRONT SLIP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER
THIS MORNING. IT TOOK MOST OF THE MORNING, BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH HAVE KICKED IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO
PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
OVERACHIEVED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S(WARMEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD). THIS HAS PRETTY MUCH ERODED ANY
LEFTOVER SNOW COVER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FALL OFF
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WITH TODAY'S SNOWMELT, CAN'T COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT SOME BRIEF SHALLOW FOG FORMING, PARTICULARLY FROM THE JAMES
VALLEY WEST INTO PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY. IT'LL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ORIENTS WINDS IN A MORE
FAVORABLE WAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOESN'T HAVE A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR FOG
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SETS
UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. INSTEAD OF 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +15C
RANGE LIKE WE'VE SEEN TODAY, 925MB TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE KNOCKED
BACK DOWN TO ABOUT A +4C TO +12C RANGE. STILL, THIS IS ABOVE CLIMO,
SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. SOME
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE A FEW MORE MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIP AWAY FROM US TO THE EAST GOING INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN FALL INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL GIVE US
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DRY AND VERY MILD DAYS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. ENSEMBLE DATA IS STILL POINTING TO 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO ON FRIDAY. EC EFI DATA HIGHLIGHTS A
WARM TMAX WITH VALUES OF 0.6 TO 0.9 ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST NBM
VALUES ARE WITHIN ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS FOR PIERRE
AND MOBRIDGE. HIGHS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY PROBLEM REACHING THE 60S FOR
MOST LOCALES WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL SD. A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPS(20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND DRY CONDITIONS, SOME
AREAS COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT,
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MUCH ABOVE HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER,
BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
FINALLY, GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BIT OF A
PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE. LONGER
RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE LATCHING ONTO
A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN DEVELOPING. COMPARED TO RUNS
YESTERDAY THAT HAD A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
TANDEM WITH EACH OTHER, TODAY'S RUNS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WITH IT'S UPPER TROUGH STILL WORKS
THROUGH OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND, WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LAGS BACK
CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THESE MODEL
RUNS SHOWED 2 DAYS AGO. SO, CONFIDENCE ISN'T THE BEST IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONETHELESS, CAN'T COMPLETE RULE
OUT SOME PRECIP THIS WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF FROPA'S WORK THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS, BUT MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED. INHERITED ENSEMBLE POPS
HAVE COMPLETELY REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP NOW FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. INSTEAD, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TAKES THAT SOUTHERN CUT OFF UPPER
LOW AND SHIFTS INTO OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN OPEN WAVE. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEND MORE CREDENCE INTO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE'LL HAVE
TO WATCH THESE TRENDS AS WELL IN THE COMING DAYS TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHIFTS IN THE DATA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF NOVEMBER,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 4 TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...VIPOND
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