622
FXUS63 KABR 141211
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
611 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S TODAY, WITH
RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S THIS WEEKEND, COOLING EVEN
MORE INTO THE 30S AND 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN/SNOW CHANCES (30-40%) RETURN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES IN REGARDS TO SYSTEM STRENGTH AND OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE HOW WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON, AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE I-90
CORRIDOR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHALLOW MIXING HOWEVER, MOST ONLY
UP TO AROUND 925 MB. THIS MAY BE A FACTOR IN TEMPERATURES AND
WIND SPEEDS TODAY. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS
YESTERDAY, AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, STUCK WITH THE NBM 95TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THE ECMWF EFI ALSO VALIDATES THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES OF 80-90% ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90-95% ABOVE MODEL CLIMO. THIS IS
ALSO NOTED IN THE NAEFS TABLES WHERE TEMPS ARE UP IN THE 99%
PERCENTILE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, FORECAST TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR RECORD OR RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 14.
FIRE WEATHER IN THE JONES/LYMAN/BUFFALO COUNTY AREA ALSO REMAINS
RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. AGAIN, THE SHALLOW MIXING IS
PROBABLY THE MOST PROHIBITIVE FACTOR. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
BORDERLINE. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE NBM
WINDS AT THIS TIME. AND COMPARED TO THE HREF PROBS, WHICH ONLY
CARRY A 20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH, THE NBM MAY EVEN
TREND TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE. MEANWHILE, THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS
DRY AND WE WILL HAVE THE FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT.
THEREFORE, DID DROP DEWPOINTS BY USING THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE
VALUES. COMBINED, THESE VARIABLES DO DROP THE GFDI FOR THE
SOUTHERN QUARTER OF JONES/LYMAN INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY, BUT
AVERAGING OVERALL, THE ENTIRE COUNTIES COME OUT AS HIGH FIRE
DANGER. NO HEADLINES AT THIS POINT, BUT SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH SATURATION TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT. THEY ARE ALSO ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT PTYPE
WILL REMAIN RAIN. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE LIGHT RAIN
MENTION ALONG WITH THE LOW QPF FORECAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
SATURDAY EVENING STARTS THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
TO OUR WEST THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER CO MONDAY THAT WILL MOVE EAST AND ACROSS
NE AND SOUTHERN SD, TRACK DIFFERS SLIGHTLY AMONG MODELS. WE THEN
RETURN TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN FOR TUESDAY. AFTER THIS,
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE EC KEEPING MORE OF A RIDGE PATTERN, AND THE
CANADIAN AND GFS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MONDAY, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR IT TO STAY MAINLY RAIN,
HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD MAY MIX IN SOME SNOW. THIS
WOULD BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
NBM IS ALSO THROWING IN SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE NBM SHOWS SOME LOW
MAGNITUDE POPS FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM, BUT WITH MODEL
DISAGREEMENT, THIS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO CHANGE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH SUNDAY AS THE WARMEST DAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO
ABOUT 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SD MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
OTHER THAN THAT, NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY ON THE WIND SIDE OF
THINGS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS
FEATURE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...SERR
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