731
FXUS63 KABR 291910
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
110 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FALLING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE, MAINLY
GROUND-LEVEL, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT UNTIL THE WINDS
BEGIN DIMINISHING LATE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. COLDEST TIMEFRAME IS SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH TEMPS 15 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
AT 1 PM CST, UNDER A CLOUDY SKY, LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS ARE OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS IS CAUSING SOME, MAINLY, GROUND-LEVEL BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. AND, TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING, MOSTLY, IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS.
THE FALLING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SO,
THAT MIGHT HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FREE-FALLING. THE WIND IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY UP SOME (LOWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA) OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
SHOWCASE HIGH PRESSURE (AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) OVER THE REGION.
SO LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF THAT PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO SLIP AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WIND TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
7-DAY FORECAST IS PROGGED TO ADVECT DOWN INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AND, NOW THAT THERE IS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
MEANINGFULLY DEEP SNOWPACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION, WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR EACH ROUND OF LOW/MID-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO SEE HOW MUCH OF A DENT CAN BE MADE IN THIS LARGE SNOW-
INDUCED COLD POOL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO, BOTTOMING
OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 10F AND 20F BELOW ZERO EACH NIGHT ALONG/NORTH
OF U.S. HIGHWAY 212.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW IN A POSITIVE
PNA PATTERN (UPPER RIDGE WESTERN CONUS/UPPER TROF EASTERN CONUS).
DOUBTLESS, THERE ARE OCCASIONS WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REGION IN SAID UPPER FLOW. BUT, OTHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT
(20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION), THE FORECAST DOES NOT
CONTAIN ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION UNTIL DAY 7 (FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY). FOR THE MOST PART, DETERMINISTIC GSM'S AND THE
ENSEMBLE QPF CLUSTERS AND 500HPA HEIGHT CLUSTERS ARE DRY. ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE/ANOMALIES SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A SUBTLE WARM
UP TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE OUT PERIODS. BUT THERE IS SO
MUCH SPREAD IN THE 25TH TO 75TH TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES (ANY WHERE
FROM 5 DEGREES TO, IN MANY INSTANCES, MORE THAN 10 DEGREES OF
SPREAD), IT IS DIFFICULT RIGHT NOW TO PUT ANY SEMBLANCE OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM UP NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE KMBG TERMINAL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND
DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AT KPIR, KABR AND KATY. AS LONG AS THE SNOW PERSISTS SO
WILL THE IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ONCE SNOW ENDS, MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY FADING TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ046.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...10
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