774
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. COLDEST TIMEFRAME IS SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH TEMPS 15
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE FLURRIES
IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. FLURRIES SHOULD BE
ENDING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES OF
THIS CWA AROUND NOON CST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING PER METARS, RADAR RETURNS AND
SDDOT/MNDOT WEBCAMS. A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS COVERS MOST
OF THE CWA AND FARTHER UPSTREAM INTO ND HELPING TO MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THE FLURRIES/OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW WILL PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL DAYBREAK AT WHICH TIME BUFKIT
PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE COLUMN THAT RESIDES WITHIN THE DGZ AND
WE LOSE WEAK LOW LEVEL OMEGA.
A 1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY
IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK S/W UPPER RIDGING ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER
NORTHWEST WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON, A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS. THIS WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO RID THE AREA OF CLOUD COVER AS LEFTOVER SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED. STILL FEEL SOME SUNNY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS WON'T RECOVER MUCH AS READINGS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE TONIGHT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH OF A FALL WE SEE IN THE
TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. IF SOME BREAKS OR A PERIOD OF CLEARING
DEVELOPS, READINGS WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER, INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EARLY MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STABILIZE OR SLOWLY RISE PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. OUR NORTHERN ZONES WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING
SOME CLEARING AND SUBZERO TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER TROUGH WORKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL SLIDE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND KICK OFF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NE AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN SD EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW
LEVEL WAA TRIES TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SD HELPING THOSE AREAS REACH THE 20S FOR HIGHS WHERE
THE SNOWPACK ISN'T QUITE AS EXTENSIVE. OTHERWISE, MOST OF OUR AREA
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WHERE WE HAVE AN
ESTABLISHED DEEPER SNOWPACK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE LONG TERM STARTS MONDAY EVENING WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN SD
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE STAY
IN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
WITH A COUPLE DISTURBANCES TO THE FLOW. THE FIRST IS WEDNESDAY,
LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, CONNECTED TO A LOW
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ND AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SECOND IS
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE/WEAKER LOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN SD.
BOTH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN, BUT REMAIN 30% OR LESS. RIGHT NOW, ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST. FOR SATURDAY,
POPS ARE AGAIN AROUND OR LESS THAN 30% AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DAY 6 SO EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE MOST
PART, BUT WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO HAVE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS
20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WIND CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW AVERAGE, COLDEST ALONG
THE ND/SD BORDER. THURSDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVE DROPPED
DRAMATICALLY, NOW LOOKING TO BE IN THE 20S BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS
CAUSED BY A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, AND NOT SO MUCH BY STRONG WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
LOW CEILINGS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KABR/KATY, SO VFR IS EXPECTED
THERE FOR, AT LEAST, THE NEXT 6 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT, (MVFR/IFR) LOW
STRATUS (PERHAPS SOME FOG, TOO, AT KATY?) IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE OVER KPIR/KMBG
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERHAPS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY, LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OFF AND
KPIR/KMBG RETURN TO VFR FLYING WEATHER. FLURRIES ARE FALLING OUT
OF THE STRATUS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (KPIR), AND KMBG COULD
PERHAPS START REPORTING -SN PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...VIPOND
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
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