786
FXUS63 KABR 041138 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
538 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SISSETON HILLS REGION TODAY,
WITH GUSTS FROM 40-50 MPH. THIS MAY CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
- SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS OF LIGHT SNOW.
- SNOW CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH FOLLOWING BY PERIODIC LOWER CHANCES (20-40%) THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
AREA OF STRATUS (WITH FLURRIES) CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WARM FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS 925MB TEMPS RISE
TO AROUND +2C TO +3C (HREF MEAN) ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. ALTHOUGH
ACROSS THE FAR EAST, PERHAPS ONLY -4C TO -5C. THIS STILL EQUATES TO
HIGHS IN THE 20S EAST, TO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BIGGER
STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE COTEAU
TODAY. HREF MEAN CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTS 40-45 MPH. PROBS FOR 50+
MPH DO SHOW A SMALL/LOCALIZED AREA OF 20-40% IN THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE COTEAU. TRIED TO CONVEY THESE SPEEDS IN THE
FORECAST OVER THERE. POTBLOWINGSNOW OUTPUT CONTINUES WITH
DRIFTING/PATCHY BLOWING OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HI-RES OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
SHOW LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE IN THE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT IN
JUST HOW EXPANSIVE ANY POCKETS/AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE. AFTER
LOOKING AT VARIOUS SNOWFALL OUTPUT/PROBABILITIES, IT APPEARS
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP. THE UPPER WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PACK A BIT MORE OF A PUNCH THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE MENTIONED ABOVE. THERE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW AS MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS WITHIN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT BUT ALSO CONTAINS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
THEREFORE, ANY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE
A BIG IMPACT ON WHO GETS A GOOD DOSE OF SNOW AND WHO DOESN'T. WITH
THAT SAID, THE GENERAL AGREEMENT IS POINTING TO A TRACK THAT FAVORS
THE CLIPPER JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
WOULD MEAN OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES MAY SEE MORE OF AN IMPACT
FROM MORE SNOWFALL AND MORE WIND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING MORE THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW BETWEEN EARLY
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY ARE BETWEEN 40-70 PERCENT ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST ZONES, WHILE ONLY BETWEEN 15-30 PERCENT
FROM NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SD INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL
MN. FOR PROBS OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME RANGE
BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT FROM EAST CENTRAL SD/WATERTOWN AREA WEST AND
SOUTH THROUGH CLARK AND REDFIELD AND THEN DOWN TOWARD THE MILLER AND
KENNEBEC AREAS, WHILE LOCALES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS
ONLY STAND A 5-15 PERCENT CHANCE. CERTAINLY A SYSTEM WE'LL HAVE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS ANY CHANGES IN TRACK OF
THE LOW WILL GREATLY AFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. THIS WILL BE MEAN CONTINUED PERIODIC VISITS BY MORE CLIPPER
LIKE LOWS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ANY SUCH WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THEREFORE,
IT'S MORE DIFFICULT TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC INFERENCES ON THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE CWA EXPERIENCES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, EXPECT THINGS TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT
WE'VE RECENTLY OBSERVED AND EXPERIENCED WITH BOUTS OF SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX ALONG WITH BOUTS OF ARCTIC TEMPERATURES MIXED IN WITH
WARMING/MELTING TRENDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT KABR/KATY AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH LOWER CIGS IN IFR (LAKE EFFECT) ACROSS KMBG. FORECAST IS FOR
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATER TODAY, WITH MORE MVFR
CIGS (POTENTIALLY IFR?) LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. WITH THIS LOW, COMES CHANCES FOR -SN WITH
MVFR VSBY WHICH WAS USED AS A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE TIME BEING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...TMT
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