922
FXUS63 KABR 050315
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
915 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS OF LIGHT SNOW. AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD COULD SEE FREEZING
RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, WHICH COULD CAUSE A
LIGHT GLAZE ON SURFACES FRIDAY MORNING.
- SNOW CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH, PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE NORTH AND AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW SOUTH OF US-212. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC LOWER CHANCES FOR
SNOW (20-40%) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS MORE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH (STRONGEST GUST OF 33 MPH AT ALTAMONT
AT THE CURRENT TIME). THE RESULT IS LESS DRIFTING SNOW OVER AREA
ROADWAYS. SNOW WAS OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SD,
AND REMAINS LIGHT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD (PIERRE AND SOUTH) WHICH ARE
STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS TIME. IF THE TEMPERATURES CAN STAY
ELEVATED IT WILL LIMIT LIGHT ICING AS PRECIPITATION COMES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
AS OF 20Z, STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE GUSTING ALONG THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. THIS IS LEADING TO WIND GUST
OBSERVATIONS OF 40-50 MPH IN AREAS, AS WELL AS DRIFTING AND PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW LOCALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY STRONG INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN.
TONIGHT, A SMALL CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD
FROM ND. THIS CLIPPER WILL MOSTLY BRING LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES FOR
NORTH CENTRAL SD TONIGHT AND FOR NORTHEASTERN SD LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A BIT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT, AND THIS
SHOULD COOL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIPITATION
STARTS TO FALL. HOWEVER, SOUTH CENTRAL SD COULD STAY WARMER ALOFT
FOR LONGER CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT AS IT FALLS BEFORE IT REACHES
THE SURFACE. SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND/BELOW
FREEZING, THIS MELTED SNOW COULD FREEZE AS IT REACHES THE GROUND
LEADING TO FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE TO FORM IN A LINE FROM THE PIERRE
AND REDFIELD AREAS AND TO THE SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS, HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHEASTERN SD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
TOMORROW FORECAST TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. AT THE
SAME TIME, WIND CHILLS WILL STAY ABOVE 0, WITH MOST AREAS GETTING
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
GENERAL THEME FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST IS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 18-24HRS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THE CLIPPERS AND VARIABLE TEMPERATURES (WARMING IN FRONT OF AND
COLDER BEHIND). ALL IN ALL, THE LIGHTER SNOW SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO
MINOR IMPACTS AS ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A LIGHT DUSTING TO
AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST (PRIMARILY ON FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN
CENTRAL SD).
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS COMES WITH THE
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF THE GREATEST SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY SYSTEM. THE UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN THERE FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS, LARGELY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE
INTENSITY OF THE CANADIAN HIGH TO THE NORTH. IT DOES SEEM LIKE WE'RE
SEEING MORE CONSISTENCY NOW WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM CENTRAL MT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT TO CENTRAL NE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SNOW OCCURRING ON THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND TIED TO
THE 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FGEN FORCING. THE SWATH OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND INTO
SOUTHEAST SD, BUT THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. THE
LATEST IN THE ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HIGHLIGHT A DUSTING (10-25TH
PERCENTILE) TO OVER 3" (90-95TH PERCENTILE) FOR THE
MOBRIDGE/PIERRE/FAULKTON AREA AND THEN LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TREND DOES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS BEING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY, AS THE FORCING INTENSIFIES IN SOUTHEAST SD. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY.
BEHIND THAT CLIPPER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIER
AND STRUGGLES AS IT RUNS INTO THE HIGH OVER CENTRAL SD. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL CLIPPER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FARTHER
NORTH (MORE OF A EASTERN ND AND NORTHERN MN SNOW), BEFORE THE NEXT
ONE ON TUES NIGHT INTO WED (THIS ONE IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND
DOES BRING SOME SNOW POTENTIAL TO NORTHEAST SD AND RAIN/SNOW TO
CENTRAL SD). AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THESE CLIPPERS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTER
ON SNOW THAN SATURDAY AND ONLY EXPECT A LIGHT DUSTING. FORTUNATELY,
WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND, NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME (LIMITING BLOWING SNOW), ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OF 34KT OR
GREATER DO INCREASE TO ABOVE 50% FOR TUES/WED NEXT WEEK WITH THAT
CLIPPER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD, AS ATY JUST WENT TO SCT INSTEAD
OF BKN008. THESE LOWER CLOUDS MAY ONLY TEMPORARILY RETURN THROUGH
02Z. A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH IT. 3-5 HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH IFR
TO LIFR CEILINGS. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS AND THE
COLD GROUND AT PIR, 3 HOURS OF -FZRA IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AT PIR, SO THE -FZRA HAS ONLY BEEN INCLUDED AT A TEMPO BASIS
FOR NOW. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS LOOK TO STICK AROUND LONGEST AT
ATY, FROM 11Z FRIDAY UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...VIPOND
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...06
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