502
FXUS63 KABR 150527 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU (SISSETON
HILLS) TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
50S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE 40 TO 60+ MPH
WIND GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
NEAR TERM, THESE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM OR AT LEAST OPEN WATERS OF THE MO RIVER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SOME SMALL STREAMERS NORTH OF PIERRE THAT EXTEND CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
TO MOBRIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF THE PUSH OF RIVER ENHANCED
CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN ABOVE THE SURFACE AND WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
WE'RE STARTING OUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING NOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN IA AND NORTHERN KS, WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT NOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN ELONGATED
TROUGH SET UP TO OUR WEST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 06Z MONDAY, AND SLOWLY EDGE ACROSS MN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -6C TO +8C AT THE CURRENT TIME,
HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL SD. THE WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, PEAKING AROUND 06Z BETWEEN +8 TO +16C.
TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED ON THE ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU TONIGHT DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARMER AIR
MOVING IN. 900MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH A FEW
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
(SUMMIT-PEEVER-BRANDT). WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS.
WHILE WE WON'T BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WITH THE LARGE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
30S (LOW 40S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD), AND MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. 50S ARE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE PROBABILITY BEING 90% CHANCE OR GREATER.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU/SISSETON HILLS,
WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS OF 50-60KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE ONGOING
FORECAST INDICATING GUSTS OF 25-35KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 35-
45KTS THURSDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED AS THE TIME NEARS. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF 45 MPH OR
HIGHER WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD
EASILY CHANGE, ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ALIGNS
WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WHICH COULD HELP MAX OUT THE STRONGER GUST
POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS FALLING
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGHER
END EVENT, AS NOTED ON THE ENSEMBLE SITUATION AWARENESS TABLE NEARLY
TOPPING OUT OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE
MO RIVER FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 00Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY. WIND
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF AREA-WIDE PRECIPITATION COMES BACK FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE
HIGH (40-70%), THE ACTUAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT AT
GENERALLY AROUND 0.10" OR LESS. GIVEN THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN, RAIN
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SNOW AT NIGHT.
THE COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
THURSDAY MAY ONLY BE IN THE TEENS OR 20S, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY (TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD FRIDAY).
- WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER, THE OPEN MISSOURI
CONTINUES TO PUSH STREAMERS AND FOG TOWARD KPIR AT RANDOM
INTERVALS IN THE VARIABLE WIND. IFR STRATUS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY
EXPAND NORTH INTO KATY INTERMITTENTLY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...20
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