337
FXUS63 KABR 151116 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
516 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS, WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SISSETON
HILLS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
50S POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
- ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE 40 TO 60+ MPH
WIND GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS THAT
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS BELOW.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AS THE CWA REMAINS ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
RANGING IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE COTEAU DUE TO THE WARMER WINDS. SPEAKING
OF, THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS RECORDED WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE EVENT HAVE
BEEN 54 MPH AT ALTAMONT AND 64 MPH AT PEEVER JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
PER SDDOT.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD
INTO MN TODAY AS THE REGION LIES BETWEEN THIS EXITING WAVE AND
STRONGER TROUGH, WITH THE AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING, SOUTH OF A LOW/CLIPPER OVER ALBERTA.
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE THAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THIS
CLIPPER WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS. BY 12Z, THE
CLIPPER WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY (984MB!) AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
MANITOBA AT THIS TIME, WITH THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ITS FROPA WILL TRACK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT. SOME
OF THE CAMS (HRRR/RAP/NAMNEST) DO TRY TO SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIP
WITH THE FROPA AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER, TIMING AND PLACEMENT DO VARY BETWEEN THESE MODELS WITH
OTHERS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE FORM OF PRECIP, SO LOW CONFIDENCE
EXISTS AS OF NOW. LATEST NBM HAS POPS 5% OR LESS.
WITH WINDS OUT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, AND YOU KNOW THIS MEANS,
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE COTEAU BETWEEN ~06-
12Z. NAM SOUNDING AT PEEVER INDICATES 850/925MB WINDS BETWEEN 20-
30KTS AT 06Z, INCREASING TO 35-45KTS THROUGH 12Z. BOTH HREF/NBM
INDICATES DOWNSLOPING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO POTENTIALLY 40 MPH WITH
PROB OF GUSTS>45 BOTH AT 0%. WITH ONGOING STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AND GUSTIER WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW, WINDS WILL
INCREASE WIDESPREAD BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH HREF INDICATING GUSTS OF 35-45MPH OVER THE CWA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 50MPH GUSTS OVER THE LEOLA HILLS/COTEAU AS 850MB
WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 50-60KTS AT THIS TIME! HOWEVER,
DETERMINISTIC NBM IS ABOUT 5-10KTS LESS THAN HREF WITH GUSTS OF 30-
40MPH. TO GET THE GUSTS OF HREF, IT IS MORE OF NBM75TH AND 90TH.
HOWEVER, NBM POTENTIAL "MAX" WIND GUSTS BOTH NBM4.3/5 ARE PRETTY
CLOSE (DIFFERENCE OF 0 TO 3KTS AT ANY ONE LOCATION) DOES INDICATE
GUSTS OF 45-55KTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL, LEOLA HILLS, AND COTEAU. WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK WITH THE NEXT MODEL RUN AND
DETERMINE IF THEY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT, SO STUCK WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
WARMER AIR AT 925MB IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVING US A NICE WARMUP FROM
THE ARCTIC BLAST WE DEALT WITH. HIGHS FOR DAY WILL RANGE IN THE 30S
TO THE MID 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S TO EVEN 50 OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD!
LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
FOCUS IS ON WINDS THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
BETWEEN THE SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THERE IS A NOTE SLIGHT
SHIFT SOUTH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS HAS 1) INCREASED THE CHANCES
FOR MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND 2) NUDGED UP WIND POTENTIAL.
WITH THE SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR AT 850MB WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON RUN FORM +6 TO +12C, OR A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO.
THERE IS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE INITIALLY, SHUNTING THE
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS SOUTHEAST, DURING THE EVENING, FOLLOWED BY
THE ARCTIC FRONT ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER. STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS -22C (EC/CANADIAN
MODELS) WITH A SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSELY COLD AIRMASS IN THE GFS/NAM.
IN BUFKIT THIS TRANSLATES INTO AN ALMOST 10C DROP IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GFS 1/2KM WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE 30 TO 50KTS WITH A SIGNAL FOR
SISSETON DOWNSLOPE WINDS WEDNESDAY TO START IT ALL OFF. THEY REMAIN
AROUND THAT RANGE IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. GFS PRESSURE
RISES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ARE ALSO RUNNING CLOSE TO 20MB PER
6 HOURS. THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE PEAKS AT ABOUT 24MB. THE
PRESSURE RISES AND GRADIENT ARE A TAD STRONGER THAN THE LAST CLIPPER
WHERE WE FEATURED STRONG WINDS, THOUGH 1/2KM WINDS ARE A LITTLE
LOWER. GFS BUFKIT MIXED TOOL GETS US AGAIN CLOSE TO 50-60KTS.
EFI/SHIFT OF TAILS IS ALSO HIGHER IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST EVENT,
HIGHLIGHTING THE ENTIRE CWA.
AS NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES COOL, THERE IS A JUMP IN CAPE (A PEAK OF
ABOUT 20-30J/KG) WITH THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TOUCHING THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN AREA THAT CYCLES THROUGH
THE CWA WITH A SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OF 1 TO 6. STILL 4 DAYS AWAY SO
THE FOCUS AREA/TIMING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT, AND THE CURRENT TIMING
IS THE OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL NEED TO START MESSAGING THE POTENTIAL.
THIS ARCTIC BLAST IS SHORT LIVED, WITH WARM ADVECTION STARTING
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER MILD SHOT OF AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT AROUND THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE COTEAU IS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH KATY GUSTS OF 20KTS OR SO.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MMM
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