607
FXUS63 KABR 161726 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1126 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SISSETON HILLS DOWNSLOPE WINDS THIS MORNING TOPPING OUT AROUND
50 MPH NEAR THE PEEVER WEATHER STATION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AT 30 TO 45 MPH. WINDS
WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 30 TO 45 MPH WITH ANOTHER SISSETON
HILLS DOWNSLOPE LATE WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.
- ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE 50 TO 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS THAT
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
JUST HAVE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING, AND THIS WILL BASICALLY PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE GOING TODAY PERIOD FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN FINE SHAPE,
AND THERE ARE NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO MAKE CHANGES TO IT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
SISSETON HILLS DOWNSLOPE THIS MORNING, WITH PEEVER GUSTING TO 47
MPH, BUT THAT ALSO HAS TRANSLATED THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE AND
THE CURRENT READING AT 2 AM IS 38 DEGREES. THIS VALIDATES THE
EXTREMELY WARM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE (2000FT) WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, FLOW ALOFT
INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY, LEADING TO THE CORE OF
MILD AIR SHUNTING SOUTHWARDS. THERE'S A DICHOTOMY THERE, BECAUSE
WHILE ITS COOLING ALOFT, SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH MORE
EFFICIENT MIXING POTENTIAL. THE END RESULT IS TEMPERATURES A TAD
WARMER IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY.
THERE IS JUST A GLANCING SHOT OF SOME COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, WITH WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AND NEAR
SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES AGAIN POINT TO A
SISSETON HILLS DOWNSLOPE EVENT, WITH 60KTS IN THE CRITICAL LAYER.
CAMS SUPPORT THIS BUT ARE ONLY UP AROUND THE NBM MEAN OF 40KTS SO
WILL STICK WITH NBM WINDS FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO 21-00Z WEDNESDAY OUT
WEST, BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MID/HIGH AND ABOVE A WARM MIXED
LAYER. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ALSO LATE WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST INCREASING AND SHUNTING OUR MID LEVEL WARM
AIRMASS SOUTHWARDS, HOWEVER THE ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL UPSTREAM AT
THE CLOSE OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
STARTING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING, A STRONG (987MB) ELONGATED LOW WILL
BE HOVERING ALONG THE CANADIAN/ND BORDER (GEFS JUST A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ON ITS LOCATION) WITH ITS FIRST, MORE WEAKER COLD FRONT
POSITIONED OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SD AS WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SWITCHING TO A WESTERLY FLOW. THE STRONGER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CWA RIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE QUITE THE PUNCH! ALL THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE STRONG CAA, WITH A DROP OF 30C AT
850MB RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. WE WILL
ALSO SEE IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES OF +12 TO +20/6HR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WITH THE INCOMING HIGH. HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST PRESSURE OVER
THE CWA WILL BE AROUND 18Z, LAGGING BEHIND THE STRONGEST CAA
DURING THE MORNING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES 00Z THURSDAY WILL STILL OVERALL RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO THE LOWER 50S WITH 925MB TEMPS OF +7 TO +11C. JUMP AHEAD TO 12Z
AND 925MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -6 TO -13C WITH SURFACE TEMPS ONLY
FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE UPPER TEENS.
EXAMPLE, KABR WILL BE AROUND ~39 AT 00Z AND 12 AT 12Z! WIND CHILLS
BY 12Z WILL BE AS LOW AS THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 12 TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SOUTH OF HERE.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL STAY STEADY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHICH COULD GET BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. WIND CHILLS EAST OF THE MO RIVER WILL STILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
WINDS WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT (WHERE THE CAA IS
THE STRONGEST AS MENTIONED). THIS WILL STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, TAPPING INTO THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO AROUND 850-800MB PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ENSEMBLES INDICATE WINDS AT 925MB FROM 30-45KTS
AND 40-65KTS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE MIDDAY. SURFACE WIND GUSTS
FROM ENS/GEFS INDICATE GUSTS OF 45 TO POTENTIALLY 60 MPH OVER THE
CWA BY 12Z, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS SHIFTING EAST OF THE MO RIVER BY
18Z. NBM IS CLOSE TO THIS BUT A BIT LIGHTER WITH NBM 5.0
HIGHLIGHTING THESE STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS POTENTIAL EACH HOUR. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NBM MAX SUSTAINED WIND COULD REACH 40-50
MPH WITH MAX GUSTS OF 55-72MPH, HIGHEST OVER THE LEOLA HILLS. BOTH
NBM 4.3 AND 5 REALLY ARE VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER FOR MAX
SPEED/GUSTS WITH A SPREAD OF 5-6KTS AT MOST. SO WITH COLLAB WE HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS USING NBM/NBM90TH FROM 06Z-18Z TO GET GUSTS CLOSER
TO NBM 5.0. A WIND HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED BUT WILL TOSS IT TO THE
DAY SHIFT PER COLLAB. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WISE, CAMS INDICATES ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FIRST COLD FRONT MAINLY EAST OF THE MO RIVER WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. NAMNEST/HIRES DO SHOW WRAP AROUND
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVER THE REGION. AS OF
NOW INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE
RAIN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NAM SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS
STILL CONSISTENT WITH HIGHEST VALUES OF 6-9 (!!!) OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD AT 09Z. BY 12Z VALUES OF 2-6 EXISTS BETWEEN THE MO AND JAMES
RIVER, HIGHEST OVER HAND/HYDE COUNTIES WITH CAPE UP TO 60J/KG! LAPSE
RATES WITHIN THIS POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALL ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 6-7KM
WITH IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER, THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS
DISPLACED FROM WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF WILL BE (OVER JAMES
VALLEY AND EASTWARD). NAM SOUNDINGS SO SHOW THAT SNOW WILL BE
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME THOUGH. COMPARING TO GFS THERE IS A BIT OF
TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH EC NOT SHOWING ANYTHING. SO
THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH!
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER PASSES OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP (15-20%). RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT SURFACE WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPS ON FRIDAY 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING IN THE 30S TO MID 50S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS TODAY,
UNTIL WINDS ALOFT AND SURFACE WINDS SYNC UP AND BEGIN DECREASING
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO ~30 KNOTS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...10
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