673
FXUS63 KABR 162325 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SISSETON HILLS DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD TAKE A BREAK TONIGHT
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS PART OF A LARGER
PRAIRIE COTEAU WIND ADVISORY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY. RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING POTENTIALLY
LEAVING WET ROADS WHEN TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE 55 TO 65 MPH
WIND GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A THIN RIBBON OF
BANDED SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL DESCENDS
UPON NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL WITH
ANY OF THIS BANDED SNOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 55 MPH AND LIGHT FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE PERIODIC
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
AT 2 PM CST, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS IN PROGRESS. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN A
SPRINKLING OF OBSERVATION SITES GUSTING BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH
(LOWER BOUND WIND ADVISORY GUSTS) WITH THE COMMENCING OF THE COLD
FRONT'S PASSAGE. THERE HAVE BEEN GUSTS UP TO NEARLY 55 MPH WITHIN
THE LEE-OF-THE-PRAIRIE-COTEAU DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT'S CORRIDOR
THAT IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON, TOO. SUSPECT THERE WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO BE A FEW STATIONS BUFFETING THE LOWER BOUND OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA BETWEEN NOW AND 6 PM CST. OVERALL, WINDS ARE
FROM THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT THE CWA TODAY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY,
LOW LEVEL WAA AND A RATHER PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL JET (IN DECEMBER)
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SUPER-CLIPPER WILL RUN SUSTAINED WINDS
UP/OR CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA UP ON THE COTEAU WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT, PLUS THESE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WILL CREATE YET ANOTHER
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (COVERED IN THE WIND
ADVISORY). LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN 10 TO 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME IN DECEMBER.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT SOME LIGHT (RAIN) PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY EAST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. GENERALLY UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS RAINFALL. AFTER A
PRELIMINARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL CAA WEDNESDAY
EVENING, A MUCH MORE POTENT ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTACHED TO
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z
AND 18Z THURSDAY. STRONGEST HALF KILOMETER WINDS SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION AND POINTS WEST, BUT THE 20-
25+HPA/6-HOURLY PRESSURE RISES SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGH WIND POTENTIAL
CONDITIONS OVER INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS CONCERN. ALONG WITH THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMES THE CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET BELOW THE FREEZING MARK, LEAVING ANY WET
ROADS/BRIDGES/SIDEWALKS POTENTIALLY FROZEN (FLASH FREEZE) ROUND
ABOUT THE TIME ANY POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLING COULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE
CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETERS STILL LIGHTING UP (OVER 8 NOW IN THE LATEST RAP13
DATA), SO STILL MESSAGING SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LASTLY, AS THE SIGNAL FOR TROWAL-FORCED SNOW IN THE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE OF THIS CLIPPER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES IN THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING, THE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF GUIDANCE-GIVEN QPF IS TRANSLATING
INTO AROUND 1-1.5IN OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THURSDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW MODEL (STARTING
OFF WITH NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND) IS GENERATING "ADVISORY"
LEVEL BLOWING SNOW OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU COUNTIES OF MARSHALL,
DAY, CLARK, ROBERTS AND OVER INTO TRAVERSE COUNTY MN. SO, FOR NOW,
HAVE COLLABORATED A WINTER STORM WATCH "FOR POSSIBLE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS" FOR SAID COUNTIES FOR 12Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY. NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS UNFOLDING, BUT IF THE TROWAL SNOW
SIGNATURE GETS STRONGER (IE. GREATER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL), OR
TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER, OR WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, THIS CURRENT WATCH HEADLINE COULD END UP EVOLVING INTO
SOME SORT OF ADVISORY OR WARNING HEADLINE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVELS HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER SD. UNDER THIS, THE LOW LEVELS PUSH SOME WARM AIR INTO THE
STATE CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO OCCUR OVER NORTHEASTERN SD (IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S) WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES WARMER OVER CENTRAL SD (IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 50S). A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN ALBERTA
CAUSING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THEM. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE MORNING, THOUGH
THEY WILL BE WEAKER THAN WHAT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY. THERE IS A 30-60%
CHANCE FOR WINDS TO BE 30 MPH OR GREATER BY NOON FRIDAY AND LESS
THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A SMALL SHORTWAVE OVER CANADA
MOVES FROM ALBERTA TO THE EAST OVER MANITOBA. UNDER THIS SHORTWAVE,
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH, WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES DOWN TO THE SOUTH MOVING OVER SD. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES COLD AIR BACK INTO THE STATE, COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO HAVE AROUND NORMAL HIGHS FOR DECEMBER. SOME
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD
ALONG THIS FRONT WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT OUT OF THE AREA, REDUCING
CONFIDENCE. THE NBM HAS LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR,
AND KEEPS IT MOSTLY OVER THE NORTH OF SD, THOUGH THERE ARE LOWER
CHANCES OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE VARIABILITY IN THE
MODELS ALSO APPLIES TO THE TIMING, TYPE, AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THAT COULD HAPPEN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS START TO COME TO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT ON THIS
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH WED MORNING AND INCREASE AGAIN WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ007-008-011-019.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SDZ020>023.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-010-017-036-037-048-051.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ006-018.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
019>023.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ039.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ046.
UPDATE...20
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...20
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