946
FXUS63 KABR 172029
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
229 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9PM CST ACROSS NORTHEAST SD FOR WIND GUSTS
FROM 45 TO 55 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE SISSETON HILLS/DOWNSLOPE
REGION.
- STRONG WINDS REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH A PEAK SURGE OF 55 TO 70
MPH ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC BLAST. THE FRONT MAY ALSO SUPPORT
A BAND OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AND LOW VISIBILITY. THE TIMING OF
THESE SNOW SQUALLS MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO CAUSE ANY RAINFALL STILL ON THE
ROADS TO FLASH FREEZE.
- OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND WRAP AROUND
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES UP
ACROSS THE SISSETON HILLS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
FIRST THING TO WATCH FOR THIS EVENING IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
MILD IN THE 40S AND 30S AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH, SO PRECIP TYPE
IS PLAIN RAIN IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST SHOW UP TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT/STRONG WINDS. TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 06Z
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD, THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z. STILL
SEEING SOME POTENTIAL IN THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS FOR THERE TO BE
SOME SORT OF SNOW SHOWERS OR QUICKLY MOVING BANDED FEATURES THAT
COULD VERY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE WITH THE STRONG
WINDS.
AS FOR HEADLINES, TURNED THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, HIGHLIGHTING AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. POTBLOWINGSNOW STANDS OUT THE BEST
WHERE CURRENT ADVISORY IS LOCATED, THANKS IN PART TO HIGHER OVERALL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES. THAT SAID, IF
ACCUMULATIONS FAIL TO REACH THAT AMOUNT, ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
FROM BLOWING SNOW WILL BE STRICTLY TIED TO THE INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH. WHAT CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING IS THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW EXPANSIVE IN AREAL COVERAGE THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THIS FAR SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS
FOR ACTUAL WIND SPEEDS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF GUSTS WERE IN THE
60 TO 70 MPH RANGE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH INITIALLY OVERNIGHT,
THEN WITH THE NEXT SURGE THAT SHOWS UP LATER THURSDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH, THE HIGHEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL SD.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK'S UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GENERALLY SHOWS ZONAL
FLOW, TO AT TIMES WEST-NORTHWEST AS WEAK RIDGES MOVE ACROSS. WHAT'S
NOTABLE IS THERE ARE REALLY NO SIGNS OF ANY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS,
AND WE MAY BE HEADING INTO A SOMEWHAT QUIETER PATTERN. HIGHS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST SHOW 20S AND 30S FOR MOST
AREAS, BUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF 40S
OR EVEN 50S, ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. AN AREA OF -RA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS OTHER THAN PERHAPS MVFR VSBY. AREAS OF -SN/-SHSN
WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH PERIODS
OF REDUCED VSBY INTO MVFR/IFR, MORE SO ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEAST
SD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR SDZ007-008-
011-019>023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
SDZ007-008-011-019.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 3 PM
CST /2 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 3 PM CST /2 PM
MST/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ006-018-033>037-045-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
019>023.
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ039.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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