445
FXUS63 KABR 180536 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH A PEAK SURGE OF 55 TO 70
MPH ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC BLAST. THE FRONT MAY ALSO SUPPORT
A BAND OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AND LOW VISIBILITY. THE TIMING OF
THESE SNOW SQUALLS MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO CAUSE ANY RAINFALL STILL ON THE
ROADS TO FLASH FREEZE.
- OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND WRAP AROUND
SNOW MAY ALSO CAUSE PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES UP
ACROSS THE SISSETON HILLS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 903 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
THE PRELIMINARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA,
CURRENTLY ABOUT TO REACH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. INITIAL SURGE OF
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT HAVE ACHIEVED WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH AT
TIMES, BUT THE WALL OF WIND WARRANTING A HIGH WIND WARNING ARE
STILL A WAYS AWAY OUT IN EASTERN MONTANA AND THE FAR WESTERN
DAKOTAS. EXPECTING THESE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS (SUSTAINED
40+ AND GUSTS 65+MPH) TO REACH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BY 06Z TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, RAIN CONTINUES TO MARCH
ITS WAY OVER INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS JUST ABOUT TO MOBRIDGE (AN HOUR OR
SO AWAY FROM PIERRE), AND WAITING TO SEE THE TROWAL SNOW UP IN
MONTANA START TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND SOMEWHERE DOWN OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY
12Z THURSDAY. SEEING TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID TEENS IN TWO HOURS OUT IN EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND THE STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD BE REACHING THIS CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
FIRST THING TO WATCH FOR THIS EVENING IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
MILD IN THE 40S AND 30S AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH, SO PRECIP TYPE
IS PLAIN RAIN IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE FORECAST SHOW UP TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT/STRONG WINDS. TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 06Z
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD, THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z. STILL
SEEING SOME POTENTIAL IN THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS FOR THERE TO BE
SOME SORT OF SNOW SHOWERS OR QUICKLY MOVING BANDED FEATURES THAT
COULD VERY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE WITH THE STRONG
WINDS.
AS FOR HEADLINES, TURNED THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, HIGHLIGHTING AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. POTBLOWINGSNOW STANDS OUT THE BEST
WHERE CURRENT ADVISORY IS LOCATED, THANKS IN PART TO HIGHER OVERALL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES. THAT SAID, IF
ACCUMULATIONS FAIL TO REACH THAT AMOUNT, ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
FROM BLOWING SNOW WILL BE STRICTLY TIED TO THE INTENSITY OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH. WHAT CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING IS THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW EXPANSIVE IN AREAL COVERAGE THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE THIS FAR SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS
FOR ACTUAL WIND SPEEDS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF GUSTS WERE IN THE
60 TO 70 MPH RANGE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH INITIALLY OVERNIGHT,
THEN WITH THE NEXT SURGE THAT SHOWS UP LATER THURSDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH, THE HIGHEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE OVER CENTRAL SD.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK'S UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GENERALLY SHOWS ZONAL
FLOW, TO AT TIMES WEST-NORTHWEST AS WEAK RIDGES MOVE ACROSS. WHAT'S
NOTABLE IS THERE ARE REALLY NO SIGNS OF ANY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS,
AND WE MAY BE HEADING INTO A SOMEWHAT QUIETER PATTERN. HIGHS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST SHOW 20S AND 30S FOR MOST
AREAS, BUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF 40S
OR EVEN 50S, ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
INITIAL COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT IN TO MINNESOTA. THE SECONDARY
(ARCTIC STRONG) COLD FRONT IS WORKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION,
AND IT IS BRINGING VERY STRONG GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME SNOWFALL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS AT KATY. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS CLEARED KMBG, KPIR AND KABR, AND
IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR KATY BY 08Z. AREAS OF -SN WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (KMBG) EARLY IN THE MORNING (AFTER
07Z), AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA (KABR/KATY) INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBY/CIGS INTO MVFR/IFR
CATEGORIES, MORE SO ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEAST SD, DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW. IF ENOUGH FALLING
SNOW OCCURS, THERE COULD ALSO BE BLOWING SNOW, WHICH WOULD ADD TO
THE REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR SDZ007-008-
011-019>023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
SDZ007-008-011-019.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 3 PM CST /2 PM
MST/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ006-018-033>037-045-048-051.
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ039.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10
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