623
FXUS63 KABR 180842
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
242 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST IN EXCESS OF
60 TO 70+ MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PLUMMETING 20 DEGREES IN A
MATTER OF 2-3 HOURS CREATING FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS.
- SNOW PIVOTING AROUND THE SYSTEM PRESENTS A SQUALL/BLIZZARD THREAT
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SISSETON HILLS REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS (1-3") AND MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE BLIZZARD CONDITONS
BETWEEN 6AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH COVERAGE
OF SNOW AND IMPACTS OUTSIDE THE SISSETON HILLS REGION.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
QUIET JUST NOW WITH THE OCCASIONAL WIND GUST UP OVER 60 MPH BUT THE
ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES ON ITS WAY IN. TEMPERATURES IN NORTH DAKOTA
HAVE BEEN DROPPING 20 DEGREES IN A MATTER OF 2-3 HOURS, CAUSING A
FLASH FREEZING. ADDITIONALLY, A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF SNOW
IS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH WIND GUST OF 60-80 MPH,
AND IS HEADED INTO WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING. CAMS STILL TRY TO CONVERT THIS INTO A SQUALL OR ELEMENTS OF
A SQUALL AS THE COMA HEAD CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SOUTHEAST DOWN
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE OVERALL PROGRESSION, TIMING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE LITTLE
CHANGED. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT IS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE LOOPING BACK AROUND INTO THE CWA, NOW AROUND A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO AS FAR WEST AS MOBRIDGE/PIERRE, WITH ALSO A SLIGHT UPTICK FOR
THE SISSETON HILLS REGION TOPPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS PAST THE 2" MARK.
WITH THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION/SNOW, WHAT TO DO WITH THE HEADLINES?
CAMS UP IN THE NORTHEAST SHOW THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWFALL AS
WE TRANSITION LATER INTO THE MORNING, SPECIFICALLY 12-18Z FOR THE
HILLS REGION. SO THE QUESTION IS THEN, WHAT WILL THE WINDS BE FOR
THE TOP OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU? RAP BUFKIT MIXED TOOL PEAKS AROUND MID
40KTS, LOWER IN THE NAM/RRFS. PROFILES DRY OUT RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z,
CAMS DRY OUT ABOUT 18-20Z. HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR WINDS ALSO SHOW
LOWER VALUES UP IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME, PICKING
UP AS SNOWFALL CHANCES DROP. ITS A LITTLE BIT OF A DISCONNECT, BUT
STILL, HIGH WINDS (45+) THE VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW AND THE FLASH
FREEZE COMPONENT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS OR
ARCTIC BLASTS ARE FORECAST! OVERALL, ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER AND ITS SURFACE
LOW. ITS COLD FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA
DURING THIS TIME WITH THE REGION BEHIND IT BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLES STILL INDICATE ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD EITHER JUST HUG
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER OR STAY TO OUR NORTH. NBM POPS AS OF NOW SHOW
THIS WELL WITH A 20-30% CHANCE HERE (HIGHEST COTEAU) WITH STILL THE
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT (EC METEOGRAMS SHOW THIS TOO WITH CHANCES UP TO 10% WITH GEFS
LESS EXCITED AT 5% OR LESS) OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTHEASTERN SD, MAINLY OVER/ALONG THE COTEAU INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
NAM SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACK THROUGH, PTYPE WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT A BROAD RIDGE SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS AS A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS SETUP WILL
BRING QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL. CLIMATE PREDICTING CENTER INDICATES TEMPS HAVE
A 55-75% OF BEING ABOVE NORMAL FOR 12/23-12/27!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
INITIAL COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT IN TO MINNESOTA. THE SECONDARY
(ARCTIC STRONG) COLD FRONT IS WORKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION,
AND IT IS BRINGING VERY STRONG GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME SNOWFALL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS AT KATY. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS CLEARED KMBG, KPIR AND KABR, AND
IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR KATY BY 08Z. AREAS OF -SN WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (KMBG) EARLY IN THE MORNING (AFTER
07Z), AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA (KABR/KATY) INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBY/CIGS INTO MVFR/IFR
CATEGORIES, MORE SO ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEAST SD, DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW. IF ENOUGH FALLING
SNOW OCCURS, THERE COULD ALSO BE BLOWING SNOW, WHICH WOULD ADD TO
THE REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
019>023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ019.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ006-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SDZ007-008-011.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ007-008-011.
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...10
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