882
FXUS63 KABR 190515 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1115 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND SHORTLY AFTER,
ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING WIND CHILLS FROM 15 BELOW
TO 25 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN.
- WEAK SYSTEM FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING BRINGS SMALL CHANCES (20-40%)
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE BACK AT 9 PM CST, AS NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES HAS BEEN TRENDING
DOWNWARD (BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA). NO MORE HEADLINES NOW. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CWA. JUST DEALING WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE -10F TO -25F DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE THE NIGHT SKY IS STILL
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR. THERE ARE SOME BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THAT TREND IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST/SPREAD OVER INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST INTO MN. WILL BE DROPPING HEADLINES FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. STILL SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS
GUSTING FROM 50 TO 65 MPH, BUT THOSE GUSTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE APPROACH SUNSET AND SHORTLY AFTER. WILL BE
DEALING WITH SOME RATHER COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN, WITH READINGS FROM 15
BELOW TO PERHAPS AS COLD AS 25 BELOW ZERO.
WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IT
APPEARS MOST PRECIP ON FRIDAY STAYS ACROSS ND ACCORDING TO VARIOUS
MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS THAT
TRY TO BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN SD, SO HAVE
ADDED LOW POPS (20-30%) FOR THIS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, DON'T SEE ANY
MAJOR SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION AND THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY
FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. IT'S A LOW PROBABILITY FOR OCCURRING, BUT
IF PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FAR SOUTH AS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA,
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING IN THE FORM
OF EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN, BECOMING SNOW. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS YET. ALSO,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10
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