514
FXUS63 KABR 192117
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WILL BRING 20-50% CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION (RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SNOW) FOR MANY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH, AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT (LESS THAN 0.10IN) WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH DWINDLING SNOW COVER. HIGHS IN THE 30S, 40S, 50S FOR MANY
AREAS THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
WILL BE WATCHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES (30-50%)
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. STILL APPEARS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN,
FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW, BUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ACTUAL PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS. HREF PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE ONLY AROUND 40-60%,
WHILE PROBABILITY FOR ANYTHING OVER 0.10IN IS 0 PERCENT. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT REVEAL THERE MAY BE A LACK OF FULL
SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH THE "BEST" SATURATION PERHAPS
SHOWING UP A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 06Z. GIVEN THE 925MB TEMP
TRENDS OVERNIGHT, IT ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA AS WELL ONCE THE
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND IS SHOWING A LACK OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER, AND IT
WOULD APPEAR WE'RE HEADING INTO A SOMEWHAT QUIETER PATTERN FOR NEXT
WEEK. MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL 500MB
PATTERN SHOWS ZONAL, TO SOMETIMES WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A
PERIOD OR TWO OF RIDGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. DON'T SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS AT ALL. 925MB TEMPS OFF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE ZERO C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA. INHERITED NBM HIGHS SHOW QUITE
A FEW 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR -FZRA. INCLUDED THIS IN A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE TIME BEING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
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