902
FXUS63 KABR 200353 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WILL BRING 20-50% CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION (RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SNOW) FOR MANY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH, AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT (LESS THAN 0.10IN) WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH DWINDLING SNOW COVER. HIGHS IN THE 30S, 40S, 50S FOR MANY
AREAS THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
ANYWHERE THAT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR, SURFACE OBS BENEATH
IT ARE BASICALLY HOLDING A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 7000FT AGL. THERE
IS SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OUT OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA (RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW), BUT NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND
RIGHT NOW OVER THIS CWA. THERE IS ENOUGH WARM AIR OVER THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS WEST (IN THIS CWA) RIGHT NOW,
THAT IF ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION DOES MANAGE TO REACH THE GROUND
(WEST RIVER), IT SHOULD BE FALLING AS RAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS A COLD FRONT WORKING IT'S
WAY THROUGH THE CWA RIGHT NOW, WITH A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL CAA
HAPPENING IN ITS WAKE. BUT THE SWITCH TO A NORTHWEST WIND AND A
BIT OF AN UPTICK IN SPEED IS ACTUALLY MAKING FOR BETTER MIXING
(ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME OF WHAT'S LEFT OF THE WARMER AIR OFF THE
SURFACE BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN SHUTS IT OFF) AND SEEING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPONDING BY WARMING A FEW DEGREES. EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY, THOUGH. NOT
REALLY EXPECTING SUFFICIENT SATURATION FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO
SEE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN/EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT.
BUT, BETWEEN THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY, THERE IS
A CORRIDOR OF SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH A WARM
(ABOVE FREEZING) LAYER OFF THE SURFACE SUCH THAT FOR THE NEXT APPX
4-5 HOURS (UNTIL THE CAA CAN LOWER THE TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE COLUMN TO BELOW FREEZING), IF PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP AND
REACH THE GROUND THAT FAR EAST INTO THE CWA, IT WOULD BE FALLING
AS FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY.
RIGHT NOW, THIS IS STILL SUCH A LOW CONFIDENCE/LOW PROBABILITY
SCENARIO THAT WILL SIMPLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND FOR NOW, AND
APPLY HEADLINES LATER ON AN AS NEEDED BASIS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
WILL BE WATCHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES (30-50%)
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. STILL APPEARS THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN,
FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW, BUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS AS ACTUAL PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT, RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS. HREF PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE ONLY AROUND 40-60%,
WHILE PROBABILITY FOR ANYTHING OVER 0.10IN IS 0 PERCENT. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT REVEAL THERE MAY BE A LACK OF FULL
SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH THE "BEST" SATURATION PERHAPS
SHOWING UP A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 06Z. GIVEN THE 925MB TEMP
TRENDS OVERNIGHT, IT ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA AS WELL ONCE THE
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND IS SHOWING A LACK OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER, AND IT
WOULD APPEAR WE'RE HEADING INTO A SOMEWHAT QUIETER PATTERN FOR NEXT
WEEK. MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE OVERALL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL 500MB
PATTERN SHOWS ZONAL, TO SOMETIMES WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A
PERIOD OR TWO OF RIDGING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. DON'T SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS AT ALL. 925MB TEMPS OFF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE ZERO C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA. INHERITED NBM HIGHS SHOW QUITE
A FEW 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z, THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR -FZRA. CONTINUING PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE
TIME BEING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...10
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