416
FXUS63 KABR 202324 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
524 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL PEAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
REACHING THE 40S TO 50S.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-24%) FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON, UP TO 40 MILES PER HOUR ON THE DOWNSLOPE
SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU AS OF 19Z. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CALM DOWN AS THE HIGH MOVES IN, SWITCHING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIP
FORMATION WILL OCCUR FAIRLY HIGH UP IN THE PROFILE (~600-500MB
LAYER) WITH A DRY LAYER BENEATH. THEREFORE, IT WILL TAKE SOME
SATURATION FOR ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING, BUT IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE SOME PRECIP, AND HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES
IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL BE HOVERING NEAR FREEZING, WITH A BIT
OF A WARMER LAYER ABOVE IN BOTH AIR AND WET-BULB TEMPS. THEREFORE
ANTICIPATING ICE ALOFT TO MELT ON THE WAY DOWN AND FALLING AS RAIN
AT THE SURFACE, PERHAPS TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE DAY.
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS WEEK, LEADING
TO LITTLE TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK. A WARMER AIR MASS MOVES IN AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE, AND BY
MID-WEEK SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN
THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID-50S OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (15-25
DEGREES ABOVE LATE-DECEMBER NORMALS). WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CYCLE, TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BE ABLE TO SET
RECORDS WEDNESDAY (~40% CHANCE), BUT STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THAT
THE ADJUST.
WITH THESE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, ANY
LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL MELT OFF. THEREFORE, CONCERN WILL BE THE
DRYING OUT OF FUELS, PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE. THE CURRENT OUTLOOK PLACES PARTS
OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA UNDER A HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER,
MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH (>40%) AND WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MILES PER HOUR THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...TMT
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