790
FXUS63 KABR 210723
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
123 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL PEAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHERE
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW BUT RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SEE SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
OCCASIONALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY 15 TO 25 DEGREES, ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER WHAT BECOMES A FAIRLY PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SIGNAL ON THE HI-RES CAMS FOR A NARROW, QUICK MOVING WAA BAND THIS
EVENING. KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME. AT
THIS TIME, SPRINKLES APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY, IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO
REACH THE SURFACE. BETTER CHANCES EXIST TO THE EAST IN MN ON DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WARM FRONT AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENHANCEMENT. THE SFC LOW OVER THE ROCKIES DRIFTS EAST MONDAY BUT
DOESN'T APPEAR TO PRODUCE MUCH OF ANYTHING WEATHER-WISE. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO SETS UP ON THURSDAY WITH A DRY, MEANDERING SFC LOW DRIFTING
EAST INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
CAA THAT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE SECOND LOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT RETURNING
TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS OR
ARCTIC BLASTS ARE FORECAST! OVERALL, ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER AND ITS SURFACE
LOW. ITS COLD FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA
DURING THIS TIME WITH THE REGION BEHIND IT BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLES STILL INDICATE ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD EITHER JUST HUG
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER OR STAY TO OUR NORTH. NBM POPS AS OF NOW SHOW
THIS WELL WITH A 20-30% CHANCE HERE (HIGHEST COTEAU) WITH STILL THE
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT (EC METEOGRAMS SHOW THIS TOO WITH CHANCES UP TO 10% WITH GEFS
LESS EXCITED AT 5% OR LESS) OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTHEASTERN SD, MAINLY OVER/ALONG THE COTEAU INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
NAM SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS SLIGHT WARM NOSE ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACK THROUGH, PTYPE WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT A BROAD RIDGE SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS AS A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS SETUP WILL
BRING QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL. CLIMATE PREDICTING CENTER INDICATES TEMPS HAVE
A 55-75% OF BEING ABOVE NORMAL FOR 12/23-12/27!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...TMT
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