110
FXUS63 KABR 211642
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1042 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
DECEMBER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S (AND 40S TO MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
A BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN SD,
WITH FEW OTHER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. DRY WEATHER REMAINS FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS, WITH CAMS CONTINUING TO SHOW A LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PUSHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA 00-09Z MONDAY. WHILE STARTING
OUT AS RAIN, A 1-2 HOUR OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LITTLE TO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW BUT RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SEE SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
OCCASIONALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY 15 TO 25 DEGREES, ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER WHAT BECOMES A FAIRLY PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SIGNAL ON THE HI-RES CAMS FOR A NARROW, QUICK MOVING WAA BAND THIS
EVENING. KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW SINCE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME. AT
THIS TIME, SPRINKLES APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY, IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO
REACH THE SURFACE. BETTER CHANCES EXIST TO THE EAST IN MN ON DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WARM FRONT AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENHANCEMENT. THE SFC LOW OVER THE ROCKIES DRIFTS EAST MONDAY BUT
DOESN'T APPEAR TO PRODUCE MUCH OF ANYTHING WEATHER-WISE. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO SETS UP ON THURSDAY WITH A DRY, MEANDERING SFC LOW DRIFTING
EAST INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
CAA THAT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE SECOND LOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT RETURNING
TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...06
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