940
FXUS63 KABR 212344
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
544 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
DECEMBER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S (AND 40S TO MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
CLASSIC WEAK WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL DECK HEADED NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A DRY BUT ABOVE FREEZING LAYER JUST
OFF THE SURFACE, AND WEAK ASCENT. AS LIGHT SNOW FALLS THROUGH THE
DRY LAYER, TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING SO SNOW TRANSITIONS
TO RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO NEAR FREEZING, SO ANY MOISTURE
THAT REACHES THE SURFACE IS LIKELY TO EITHER BE FREEZING RAIN OR
LESS PROBABLE LIGHT SNOW. BY THE TIME WE SEE SATURATION HOWEVER,
THE BEST ASCENT HAS MOVED NORTHEAST AND THUS ANY MOISTURE IS JUST
A FEW HUNDREDS AND OF THE SPRINKLE/LIGHT SNOW VARIETY LIMITING ANY
ICE IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL SLICK
SPOTS ON WEBCAMS BUT OTHERWISE NOT TOO IMPACTFUL AN EVENING
EXPECTED.
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATE TO THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE
WEAK DISTURBANCES FROM TIME TO TIME THAT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN SD AND NORTHERN NE THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT, ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY (00-09Z MONDAY).
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. TAKING A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH, TEMPERATURE LOOK TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEXT
FRIDAY, WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
A SURFACE RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
IT SHIFTS ACROSS MN.
THE NEXT LOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS AT 18Z WEDNESDAY AND OVERALL
TROUGH TO OUR WEST LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF SD THURSDAY AND
MOVE INTO MN BY 06-12Z FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS IS BEING
PICKED UP BY THE 95% OR HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH RESPECT TO ICE
ON SOUNDINGS BELOW 900MB AND WITH AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 0.37 MILE OR LOWER (AND 20% CHANCE OF
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 6 MILES OR LOWER) ON THE EC ENSEMBLE VISIBILITY
METEOGRAMS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR THICKER LOW
CLOUDS OR A MENTION OF FOG. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
THERE IS A WINTRY MIX EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THEME IS DRY
WEATHER (CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 15%) STILL SOUTH OF
PIERRE. EVEN WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH, IT'S STILL
MAINLY 20% OR LESS. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., ANYWHERE FROM SD TO KS ON SATURDAY.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH THAT ONE, AND THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT. EXPECT CHANGES DUE TO THE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MODELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSE
ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT, STARING AT KPIR,
FOLLOWED BY KMBG, KABR AND FINALLY KATY. PRECIPITATION MAY BE VERY
LIGHT RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN, VFR VISBY/CIGS DURING ALL THIS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...07
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