170
FXUS63 KABR 050333 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
933 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES TONIGHT, MAINLY IN AND EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY, WHERE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO AROUND ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
- PATCHES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
AFFECT NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN; LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/0.01IN OF ICE ACCUMULATION)
CHANCES ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CLARITY
FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
LOW OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE
THERE TO STAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
PERHAPS EVEN EXPAND BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST A BIT.
ALSO, FOG IS SETTING IN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST SD AS EXPECTED.
THE MOST DENSE IS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SFC OBS AND AREA WEBCAMS AS THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH
AND WEST LATER ON THIS EVENING AND ADD ADDITIONAL ZONES TO THE
ADVISORY IF WARRANTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
AT 2 PM CST, THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OVER THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S, AND SOUTH WINDS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE
SWITCHING AROUND AND BECOMING NORTHWEST, IN THE WAKE OF THIS SURFACE
LOW PASSAGE, AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SWATH OF FAIRLY DENSE FOG POSITIONED OVER SEVERAL
COUNTIES BETWEEN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEYS, TOO. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES IS MOVING EAST
NOW, HEADING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THROUGH NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA (FREEZING MISTING AT KABR). HEADLINES FOR FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS ATTACHED TO THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVERHEAD FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING, A
RATHER ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN (RATHER WEAK BUBBLE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE) SETS UP, WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
STILL NOT A SUFFICIENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT,
AT LEAST NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FORMATION OF MORE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE, AGAIN, OVERNIGHT.
WHEN THE NEXT IN A RAPID SUCCESSION OF TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY,
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE ENOUGH SATURATION HAPPENS TO
SUPPORT SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM ~23Z MONDAY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AFTER 06Z TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL UVV'S WORKING IN FROM
WYOMING/MONTANA, COULD BE BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE SHIFTING IT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. P-TYPE IS LIQUID PRECIPITATION. IT'S ALL GOING TO
BOIL DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AS TO WHETHER OR NOT P-TYPE IS
CALLED PLAIN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. THE PROBABILITY OF 0.01IN OR
MORE OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM 6 PM CST MONDAY
TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY OVER THE CWA RANGES FROM 15-25 PERCENT OVER
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO 25-40 PERCENT OVER NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA (A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PROBABILITIES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO).
OVERALL, THE PERIOD WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MODERATE LOW
LEVEL WAA AND WEAK CAA. SUFFICE IT TO SAY, ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A COUPLE OF ONGOING
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE PASSAGES MEANS THAT IF THERE AREN'T ANY NOW,
THERE WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO APPEAR SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN, THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
BUCKLING AGAIN, INTO A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN, ONCE AN UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROF MOVES FROM THE WEST COAST, PASSED THIS CWA, TO THE
EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CLUSTERS ANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF OVER THIS CWA
WITH THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROFPA, SO MAINTAINING
"STATUS-QUO" OF NBM'S 15 TO 20 POPS AND NO QPF FOR SAID SYSTEM.
THERE IS A DECENT COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
THIS CWA, WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY) TO SOMETHING MORE IN LINE WITH
"NEAR NORMAL" TO PERHAPS UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL SD EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS.
THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL PREVAILING TREND THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
FOR KABR/KATY, IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDAY HOURS ON MONDAY. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THESE
2 TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS DOWN AS LOW AS LIFR/IFR
CATEGORIES. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ019-022-023.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...VIPOND
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