653
FXUS63 KABR 051751 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1151 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
- ONE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES (10-30%) MOVES THROUGH E/NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS COULD REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING WITH LIGHT ICE POSSIBLE.
- 2ND ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN (30-60%) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL SD EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AGAIN NEAR FREEZING COULD RESULT IN
LIGHT ICE.
- LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE, BUT MAIN
IMPACTS CURRENTLY SETTING UP WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS
PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER SNOWFALL ONLY AROUND 20% OR LESS.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WED-
MON) WITH 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS (EXCEPT SATURDAY).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 511 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
UPDATED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS FOG HAS BECOME MORE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATE TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING,
WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. UNDER THIS,
TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS. AS WE PROCEED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOUR OR SO, THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON TWO WEAK WAVES THAT SLOWLY
PROPAGATE OVERHEAD IN SUCCESSION. THE FIRST MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY,
THOUGH HAS TRENDED SOUTH A LITTLE WITH THE BEST ASCENT. MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY ABOVE 10KFT, WITH A DEEP DRY WARM LAYER.
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO, AND AT
THE INVERSIONS PEAK THERE IS A 9C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THIS MOISTURE
MUST FALL THROUGH BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS, OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES, WITH THE HREF
PROBABILITY OF MEASURING 0.01 OR GREATER AT ONLY 15 TO 35% WITH THE
PEAK IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. AGAIN, WITH 925/850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RAIN PRIOR TO REACHING THE SURFACE AT WHICH POINT SURFACE
TEMPERATURE REMAINS THE DETERMINATE FACTOR AS TO WHETHER WE WILL SEE
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. AGAIN, NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY UP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
THE SECOND WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSE BEHIND FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
THE DRY LAYER IS NOT AS DEEP OR WARM FOR THIS SECOND WAVE, AND THUS
PRESENTS WITH A BETTER OPTION FOR TRANSLATING MOISTURE TO THE
SURFACE. TIMING IS DURING THE EARLY MORNING, MEANING AGAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE DROPPED BELOW
FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. HREF PROBABILITY OF
MEASURING IS UP TO 60% JUST SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE.
AND WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN, LIGHT PRECIPITATION, AND THE COOL
AIR AND MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION, FOG AND STRATUS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN
ITS COVERAGE/EXTENT GOING FORWARD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, GEFS/GEPS/ENS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, MAINLY ACROSS MO/IL/IN. WE APPEAR TO BE ON
THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF PRECIP CHANCES, IF ANY AT ALL. ENS IS THE
MOST "AGGRESSIVE" WITH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ONLY GIVING
~20% OR LESS CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES MORE OVER
SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN. INHERITED POPS HAVE ONLY 20-30%
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE, IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF MODELS EARLY
THIS WEEK REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWING 925MB TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE ZERO C THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID/LATE WEEK, WHICH SPELLS OUT
MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS. NBM SHOWING QUITE
A BIT OF 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SIGNS
OF A BRIEF COOLDOWN SATURDAY AS 925MB TEMPS DROP TO -10C TO -13C
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. FORECAST HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AND
30S SATURDAY, COOLEST OVER THE EASTERN CWA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED,
THIS IS RATHER BRIEF THOUGH AS GEFS/GEPS/ENS ALL SHOW MILD AIR
RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE KATY VICINITY COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY AFTER 00Z.
ADDITIONALLY, WITHOUT ANY GOOD MIXING WINDS OR DRY AIR, THE
PERSISTENT FOG SITUATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY BUILD BACK WEST THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AFFECTING THE KABR/KATY TAF SITES. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS EXPANDING FOG.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ008.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...SERR
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