153
FXUS63 KABR 052031
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
231 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHEAST.
- ONE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES (10-30%) MOVES THROUGH E/NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS COULD REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING WITH LIGHT ICE POSSIBLE.
- 2ND ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN (30-60%) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL SD EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AGAIN NEAR FREEZING COULD RESULT IN
LIGHT ICE.
- LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS IS POSSIBLE, BUT MAIN
IMPACTS CURRENTLY SETTING UP WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS
PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER SNOWFALL ONLY AROUND 20% OR LESS.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WED-
MON) WITH 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS (EXCEPT SATURDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
AS OF 2 PM CST, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR
NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN UNTIL NOON TUESDAY. DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST BUT EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL
LET THE NEXT SHIFT EXTEND AS NECESSARY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MAINLY IN CENTRAL SD AND FAR EAST SD ALONG WITH WEST CENTRAL
MN. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL SD, AND SPREADS WEST TO THE JAMES
RIVER LATER TONIGHT. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS, COULD CREATE SLICK ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN, BECOMING FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW, WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD AFTER MIDNIGHT, ASSUMING
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING, OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN RAIN.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LITTLE TO NONE, WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE, AGAIN, MAKING FOR POSSIBLY SLICK
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PRODUCING THIS SNOW LOOKS TO STAY A GOOD WAYS
SOUTH OF US, SO THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, THIS IS 4-5 DAYS OUT SO THINGS COULD CHANGE.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK TO BE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURE
WISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 40S, POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE 50S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS SOME COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
STRONG WAA MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE KATY VICINITY COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY AFTER 00Z.
ADDITIONALLY, WITHOUT ANY GOOD MIXING WINDS OR DRY AIR, THE
PERSISTENT FOG SITUATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY BUILD BACK WEST THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AFFECTING THE KABR/KATY TAF SITES. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS EXPANDING FOG.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ008.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SERR
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