824
FXUS63 KABR 060910
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY, WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING SO POSSIBLY A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE.
- SMALL CHANCES (~20%) FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS
LESS THAN A HALF INCH EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD (THU -
TUE) WITH 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS (EXCEPT SATURDAY).
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY, AND AGAIN ITS
MAINLY A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS
ABOVE A DRY LAYER AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. AS SUCH, WE'LL AGAIN POSSIBLY SEE ANOTHER
CHANCE AT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK, WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE MILD, BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS 24 HOURS AGO. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT IS
COUNTERED BY THE BETTER MIXING DIRECTION. MID DAY CLOUD COVER WILL
GIVE WAY TO BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON, SO STILL LOOKING AT ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. MID CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT, AND THE
CLOUDS IN CONCERT WITH THAT LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW, CAMS ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE ON THE FOG REDEVELOPMENT IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. ANOTHER GAP IN CLOUDS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY FILLS IN
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
STILL LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD SHAPING UP ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH THE ONLY THING TO WATCH (IN TERMS OF PRECIP) BEING
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH DOES LOOK TO BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE EASTERN
CWA, BUT CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY ABOUT 20
PERCENT SHOWING UP IN LATEST NBM RUNS. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED EITHER. GRAND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 0.5IN
IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS MODELS SHOWING A LACK OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE THE CONTINUED
MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 30S AND 40S, WITH THE ONLY SETBACK BEING
ON SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF COLDER AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ARCTIC AIR BY
ANY MEANS, BUT HIGHS DO DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S. AND, LIKE 24
HOURS AGO, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS BEING A BRIEF VISIT OF COLD
AIR AS 925MB TEMPS BOUNCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS AT KMBG AND KPIR, THOUGH KPIR MAY GET A SPRINKLE
HERE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FARTHER EAST KABR AND EVENTUALLY
KATY ARE DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THIS IS ADVECTING
SOUTHEAST SO MAY NOT LINGER TOO LONG INTO THE DAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ006>008-011-
018>023.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ039-046.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...07
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