439
FXUS63 KABR 070922
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCES (~20-30%) FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF INCH EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- EXCEPT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON
SATURDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DURING THE 7-DAY
FORECAST, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INUNDATE THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING, WITH A
BACK EDGE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AND JUST A
SUBTLE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS, THINGS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG BY MID-MORNING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY. THERE'S STILL A
FAIRLY MILD AIRMASS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, AND WITH LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCING MIXING ALLOWING US TO MORE EASILY TAP INTO
THE WARMER AIR.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THERE IS A WAVE TO THE SOUTH THAT LATE IN
THE DAY MAY SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA (JONES/LYMAN I-90 CORRIDOR AND OVER BY WATERTOWN). BUFKIT
PROFILES, HOWEVER POINT TO A CLASSIC INTENSELY DRY NEAR SURFACE
LAYER AT ABOUT 800MB, TO THE TUNE OF 30C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
DESPITE SATURATION DOWN TO AROUND 5KFT, LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY AS SNOW AS WET-BULP PROCESSES KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE
BELOW FREEZING. BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL IT SURVIVE THE DRY
LAYER TO THE SURFACE. IF HISTORY IS ANY GUIDE, THEN WE SHOULD
PROBABLY LEAN TOWARDS MOST OF THIS EVAPORATING BEFORE GETTING AS FAR
NORTH AS THE CWA THANKS TO 30KTS OF NORTHEAST FLOW RE-ENFORCING THAT
DRY LAYER. WILL STICK WITH NBM POPS WHICH IS LIMITED TO 10% OR LESS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
STILL EXPECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, STRENGTHENING A BIT AS GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS A
CLOSED LOW AT 500MB ACROSS NORTHERN MN BY 12Z SATURDAY. STILL
LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT PASSES
THROUGH, BUT ONLY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AS GRAND ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY OF 24-HR 0.5IN OR GREATER SNOWFALL ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY
REMAINS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE CWA. INHERITED NBM POPS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A PUSH OF
COLDER AIR AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH AS 925MB TEMPS DROP TO
AROUND -12C TO -14C ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA (BASED ON GRAND ENSEMBLE)
BY 18Z SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP A BIT ON SATURDAY AS WELL
WITH THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR. CURRENT FORECAST WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. PROBABILITY OF
24-HR MAX GUSTS HITTING ADVISORY LEVELS (>45MPH) OFF THE NBM ARE
ONLY ABOUT 35 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW, IT SEEMS
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ASIDE FROM THE ONE-DAY SETBACK FROM THE MILD
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, READINGS LOOK TO BE RATHER MILD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWING 925MB TEMPS RISING BACK
ABOVE ZERO DEGREES C THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INHERITED NBM TEMPERATURES SHOWING PLENTY OF 30S AND 40S RETURNING
TO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR THE
MOST PART.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...07
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