840
FXUS63 KABR 080531
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1131 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ~20-30% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- EXCEPT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON
SATURDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DURING THE 7-DAY
FORECAST, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK, WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL
CHANGES. THE SKY COVER WAS INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE'LL BE
WATCHING THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THERE ARE
RADAR RETURNS, ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDS LOOK PRETTY HIGH AT THIS POINT.
A DRY FORECAST REMAINS AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC
AND MIDLEVELS, THE BULK OF THE FORCING REMAINS NORTH, SOUTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, CAA AND WRAPAROUND,
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL COMBINE TO CREATE BLUSTERY WINDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT CUTTING OFF
THE SHOWERS.
WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH. WHEN COMBINED WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS, HOWEVER,
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT DID LOAD IN THE ECMWF TO GET SOME QPF MENTIONED. NBM
IS STRUGGLING WITH THE HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT, PER USUAL. ONLY
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED
AS SATURDAY APPROACHES. ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING MONDAY. SOME SHOW A
CLIPPER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING THOUGH
MOST SOLUTIONS HOLD OFF ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS JUST ABOUT INTO KPIR AND
WILL THEN HIT KABR/KATY LATER TONIGHT. ONLY TALKING ABOUT GUSTS
20-25KTS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...07
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