491
FXUS63 KABR 081137
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
537 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST MOVING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MIGRATES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MID-DAY FRIDAY. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED.
- ~20-30% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- EXCEPT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON
SATURDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DURING THE 7-DAY
FORECAST, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
-FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION. FAVORABLE MIXING
WILL COUNTER THE COLD ADVECTION TO SOME EXTENT TODAY, SO A RAPID
BUMP IN TEMPERATURES CONSTITUTING THE HIGH, WITH A STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING TREND. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DRY AS WELL. A SYSTEM
MOVES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS A WELL
DEVELOPED DRY LAYER AT 700-800MB WITH DRY ADVECTION AT 20-30KTS
IN THAT LAYER. THAT MEANS ANY SNOW FALLING INTO THE LAYER WILL
EVAPORATE WITH LITTLE MODIFICATION, SO PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A
SHARP CUTOFF WHICH SETS UP CLOSER TO SIOUX FALLS THAN OUR CWA.
A WEAK WAVE/NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY. GIVEN THE SMALL SCALE AND SHORT DURATION, IT IS
POORLY REPRESENTED IN THE NBM WHICH SMOOTHS IT DOWN TO 2 TO 5 POPS.
WILL PUT IN A CAM THAT DEPICTS AT LEAST A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. SHOULDN'T HAVE AN IMPACT IN
THE CWA (NON-ACCUMULATING) AS THE WARM LAYER DEPICTION IN BUFKIT IS
ONLY ABOUT +1C AND SHALLOW (JUST 1-2 HUNDRED FEET).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN MN/WI
FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO DEEPEN AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW AT 500MB
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE QPF PROBS/OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER SCANT PRECIP
AMOUNTS IN ANY POTENTIAL WRAP-AROUND FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (20%)
OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT AREAS FURTHER EAST IN
MN MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WHERE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE (24-HR PERIOD ENDING 00Z SUNDAY) OFF GRAND ENSEMBLE ARE
OVER 70 PERCENT. THERE'S ALSO AN AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA INTO
UNR CWA WHERE CHANCES ARE PERHAPS A BIT BETTER AS AN UPPER JET
STREAK SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
STILL LOOKING AT WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION. NBM WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
NBM90 WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION, SO AGAIN
IT SEEMS TO LARGELY BE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT IN TERM OF WIND SPEEDS
ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE COMING IN A BIT COOLER ON SATURDAY NOW, AS
FORECAST HIGHS HAVE COME DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES IN SPOTS COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. SEEING A LARGER AREAL COVERAGE OF MID/UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. STILL LOOKING AT A
QUICK-LIVED SHOT OF COLDER AIR AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINS
IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY. 925MB TEMPS PEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
RANGING FROM +5C TO +10C WITH DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WINDS. HIGHS
LOOKS TO REACH THE 40S AND 50S AGAIN FOR MANY AREAS. MILD INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL (30S AND 40S), WITH A BIT OF A COOLDOWN AGAIN INTO
MID WEEK.
ALSO LOOKING AT SOME WEAK ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION GENERATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ENSEMBLE DATA STRONGLY
SUGGESTING MOST AREAS LESS THAN 0.10IN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH A NORTHWEST WIND
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...07
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