123
FXUS63 KABR 092151
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
351 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A 30-60 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE MATERIALIZING NEXT
WEEK ON TUESDAY (20-30 PERCENT CHANCE) AND THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (25-50 PERCENT CHANCE). MORESO A RAIN
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SNOW SCENARIO ON TUESDAY VERSUS A MAINLY
SNOW SCENARIO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AND, WITH BOTH POTENTIAL
EVENTS, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, INCLUDING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH, ARE A CONCERN.
- EXCEPT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON
SATURDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DURING MOST OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST, WITH AT LEAST 30S AND 40S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE DOMINATED THE WEATHER TRENDS MOST OF THE
DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THERE'S BEEN SOME
SUNNY BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. A SFC
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND IT MAY BE
KICKING UP A FEW STRAY FLURRIES, HOWEVER IT'S BATTLING DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS SO THE MOISTURE IS REMAINING ALOFT AND NOT REACHING
THE SFC. AND, THIS MORE OR LESS WILL BE THE TREND GOING INTO THIS
EVENING.
A COLD FRONT POISED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT'S ALL PART OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500MB LOW THAT GUIDANCE PROJECTS WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN, A FEW FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE AS THESE
FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED OR
ALOFT SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING NOTEWORTHY TO OCCUR IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN A STAPLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SD ON SATURDAY AND BECOME PARALLEL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP AND AN
INCOMING JET STREAK INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID TO LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
GENERATE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL
SD THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE AN ALL DAY TYPE SNOWFALL,
BUT MORE INTERMITTENT OR PERIODIC WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
AT BEST. NBM PROBABILITIES OF SEEING MORE THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL
ARE LOW AT ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR WEST RIVER
ZONES AND SOUTH OF US HWY 14. OVERALL, SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN UNDER 1
INCH FOR MOST LOCALES. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND DOES DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IT'LL BE A CHILLY START FOR SOME, ESPECIALLY EAST SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. HOWEVER, AS THE
HIGH SLIPS EAST, RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND A WARM FRONT SHIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS, TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BEGINS
TO SET IN. THIS PATTERN WILL SPILL OVER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING 2M TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THE EFI/SOT MAX T INDICES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY INDICATE A VERY UNUSUAL TO EXTREME WARMING
EVENT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY SIT
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THAT DATE.
WE COULD SEE RECORD WARM LOWS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING. AS
FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO, A WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK THAT COULD RETURN OUR AREA TO MORE WINTER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THIS 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. IF THERE ARE ANY
SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, IT WOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR
NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THESE
LOWER CIGS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL AFTER THIS CURRENT TAF VALID
PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL SD
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS SETS UP. FOR NOW, LEFT OUT MENTION OF LOW
CIGS AND PRECIPITATION AT KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...VIPOND
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