313
FXUS63 KABR 102148
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20% CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY, THEN A 30-50% CHANCE OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH WITH BOTH EVENTS, BUT WITH THE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENT, THE PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55
MPH IS 40-70 PERCENT RIGHT NOW THROUGHOUT AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH 30S AND
40S, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME 50S FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER, IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH MAYBE SOME LOW
40S POSSIBLE WEST RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
BOOKENDED BY OVERCAST SKIES AND FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MOST OF THE
DAY. SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL SD HAS SEEN STEADIER LIGHT SNOW WHERE
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES HAVE
FINALLY WORKED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. BOTH THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WANE
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND WRAP UP SOMETIME EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND
WEST CENTRAL MN TONIGHT HELPING TO RELAX THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SUNSHINE TODAY WILL START OFF TONIGHT WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS MAY QUICKLY FALL IN THESE AREAS
ONCE THE WINDS DIE OFF. THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
HELP TO DRAW IN A MORE MILD AIR MASS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP AND WE GET DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE
30S AND 40S. A FAVORABLE WIND SET UP SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY NEW SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS LATELY,
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MILD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THEMES BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PACIFIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME NEW RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS TO START THE
DAY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH, GUIDANCE DOES PROG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP INTO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD BE A PLAYER
IN THOSE POTENTIAL RECORDS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH STILL MAY PROVIDE OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME WIND THAT LOOKS TO
TURN PRETTY GUSTY, ESPECIALLY ON THE SD SIDE OF THINGS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. MILD CONDITIONS WILL SPILL OVER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
DELIVER INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE KPIR TERMINAL. HIGH
END MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AND REMAINING THERE THE REST OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KABR/KATY/KMBG
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KABR/KATY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
RELAXING AND THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR
ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KMBG MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...VIPOND
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