351
FXUS63 KABR 110510 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1110 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20% CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY, THEN A 30-50% CHANCE OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WILL GUST OVER 40 MPH WITH BOTH EVENTS, BUT WITH THE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENT, THE PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55
MPH IS 40-70 PERCENT RIGHT NOW THROUGHOUT AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH 30S AND
40S, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME 50S FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER, IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH MAYBE SOME LOW
40S POSSIBLE WEST RIVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
BOOKENDED BY OVERCAST SKIES AND FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MOST OF THE
DAY. SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL SD HAS SEEN STEADIER LIGHT SNOW WHERE
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES HAVE
FINALLY WORKED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. BOTH THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WANE
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND WRAP UP SOMETIME EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND
WEST CENTRAL MN TONIGHT HELPING TO RELAX THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SUNSHINE TODAY WILL START OFF TONIGHT WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS MAY QUICKLY FALL IN THESE AREAS
ONCE THE WINDS DIE OFF. THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
HELP TO DRAW IN A MORE MILD AIR MASS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP AND WE GET DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE
30S AND 40S. A FAVORABLE WIND SET UP SHOULD GENERATE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY NEW SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS LATELY,
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
MILD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THEMES BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PACIFIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME NEW RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS TO START THE
DAY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH, GUIDANCE DOES PROG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP INTO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD BE A PLAYER
IN THOSE POTENTIAL RECORDS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH STILL MAY PROVIDE OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME WIND THAT LOOKS TO
TURN PRETTY GUSTY, ESPECIALLY ON THE SD SIDE OF THINGS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. MILD CONDITIONS WILL SPILL OVER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
DELIVER INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...20
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