714
FXUS63 KABR 281437 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
837 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY.
- THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UP TO 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED
FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY WEST.
- THERE IS A 45-65% CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CWA, HELPING TO HOLD RADAR
RETURNS TO VIRGA OR FLURRIES AT WORST. THESE FLURRIES SHOULD BE
ENDING BY MID-DAY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE TODAY PERIOD, AS
STATIONARY LEE-OF-THE-ROCKIES SURFACE PRESSURE TROFFING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, INCLUDING INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW RETURNS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT IS ALL
VIRGA WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER UNDER THE HIGH. THE JAMES VALLEY
EAST REMAINS IN THE SFC HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY AND, OTHER THAN SOME
FLURRIES, STAYS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ACROSS CENTRAL SD, HOWEVER, A MORE SATURATED MID LAYER DEVELOPS
TONIGHT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH IN SOME WAA. NBM IS
WASHING OUT THE QPF EVEN THOUGH IT NOW HAS POPS IN THE 30 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE, SO LEANED TOWARD CONSSHORT AND WPC QPF. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS INDICATE UP TO 1.5 INCHES WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WEST RIVER IN THE WAA BAND. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, SO BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW IS NOT A CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS THE LONG TERM WITH SOME ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL SD, WEST OF THE MO RIVER. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY, AT
AROUND 15%. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG AT ALL SO
BLOWING SNOW DOESN'T LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO GET SNOW, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
WINTRY MIX AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE HIGHEST OVER NORTHEAST SD INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN WITH THE CHANCE OF MORE THAN AN INCH BETWEEN 20 AND
40% EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. FOR CENTRAL SD, ASSUMING FREEZING RAIN
OCCURS (20% CHANCE), THE CHANCE OF A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS
BETWEEN 10 AND 30%, HIGHEST IN FAR WESTERN DEWEY AND CORSON
COUNTIES. THIS AMOUNT OF ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW MOVING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WHICH STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -
20 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MO RIVER. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE COLD BUT THE COVERAGE OF -25
DEGREE WIND CHILLS IS NOT AS EXPANSIVE. WINDS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
EASTERN SD, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PRAIRIE COTEAU, AND COULD RESULT
IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW
AND MVFR CIGS MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page