489
FXUS63 KABR 281947
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
147 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY.
- THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH OF THESE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS
COMBINED ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW,
MAINLY THROUGHOUT AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
- THERE IS A 35-70% CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
AT 1 PM CST, SKIES ARE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA, WHILE NEARLY STATIONARY LEE-OF-THE-
ROCKIES SURFACE TROFFING/WARM FRONTOGENESIS IS HAPPENING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION, INCLUDING EXTENDING OVER
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE DIVERSE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ON AND EAST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU; TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY; 20S IN AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTH EVERYWHERE BUT CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WHERE READINGS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, OR BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME FORM OF EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEM.
SO, LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL WORK DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT, UTILIZING THIS LEE-SIDE TROF/WARM
FRONTAL ZONE TO DRUM UP SOME LIGHT BANDED SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. TONIGHT'S EVENT MAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND AS FAR AS A LINE FROM ROUGHLY EUREKA TO
REDFIELD. A LOT DEPENDS ON THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW EVENT SLATED
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO LINE UP A BIT FURTHER
WEST, INFLUENCING THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES IN THIS CWA TO, PERHAPS,
THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. EACH
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE ALL THAT MUCH SNOWFALL. BOTH
TONIGHT'S EVENT AND THURSDAY NIGHT'S EVENT MAINTAIN A 15-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL OCCURRING IN EACH INSTANCE.
THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGHOUT THE MO RIVER VALLEY
(BOTH WEST AND EAST RIVER) FOR TONIGHT'S POTENTIAL EVENT, WHILE
THOSE 15-30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OR MORE WITH THURSDAY
NIGHT'S EVENT CONCENTRATED FURTHER WEST IN THE CWA. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF WIND ATTACHED TO EITHER OF THESE EVENTS. BLOWING SNOW OUTPUT
IS NOT REGISTERING RIGHT NOW FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LIMITED LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS, SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE. MODELS DO
PROG SOME LOW LEVEL CAA TO KICK IN THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SCENE FROM THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THE PERIOD OPENS FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING ACROSS AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. OVER THIS
CWA, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS SNOW EVENT. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE SPLAYED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. EVERY ONCE
IN A WHILE, A LARGE/VIGOROUS ENOUGH UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THIS
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND MANAGES
TO COME OUT ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN TACT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES, ONCE ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN PERHAPS AGAIN AT SOME POINT IN THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. FORECAST WATER-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WITH THE WEEKEND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 0.10IN RIGHT NOW. THIS
TRANSLATES INTO RATHER LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL OF UP TO AN
INCH.
STILL SEEING A WARMING TREND IN THE MODELS/VARIOUS ENSEMBLE DATASETS
AFTER FRIDAY. THAT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT AS FAR
SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE CWA AS IT'S GOING TO GET FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH A COLD POCKET OF -18C TO -21C AIR AT 925HPA ADVECTING DOWN
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY IS PROBABLY THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WAA IS SUPPOSED TO
SPEND SOME TIME OVER THE CWA, STARTING SATURDAY, AND CONTINUING FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SAVE THE INFREQUENT/BRIEF BACK DOOR COLD FRONT'S
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS, EXCEPT MAY KMBG. ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF THE ZONE
OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAPPENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS, WYOMING AND MONTANA. KMBG HAS BEGUN BOUNCING IN
AND OUT OF AN MVFR CEILING ALREADY. LATER THIS EVENING, AFTER 03Z,
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW WILL START
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING
THE KMBG AND KPIR. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MID-DAY
THURSDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
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