065
FXUS63 KABR 291718 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1118 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY.
- THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BOTH OF THESE LIGHT SNOW EVENTS COMBINED ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY THROUGHOUT AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
- THERE IS A 35-70% CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY ESPECIALLY WEST RIVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. CURRENT LIGHT
SNOW EVENT ONGOING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND WEST RIVER
ZONES IS DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY ENDED BY MID-
DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THEN BE MONITORING FOR WHEN THE NEXT
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW BEGINS (CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KICK OFF AT OR
AFTER 6 PM CST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
UPDATE FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WAA BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT
CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST RETURNS REMAIN WEST RIVER,
THOUGH PIERRE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN DOWN TO 1 TO 2 MILES. MOBRIDGE,
ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS YET TO SATURATE. EXPECT THIS INITIAL BAND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SNOW FILLS BACK IN THIS EVENING AND LINGERS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH A HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA,
BASICALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MCLAUGHLIN TO MURDO. WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT, THE IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL.
WHEN THIS ROUND ENDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALL EYES TURN TO SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS
UP. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE MEAN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WEST RIVER IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. HOWEVER, AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS STILL LOW. WINDS APPEAR TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS SNOW
STARTS FALLING ON SOME MODELS, BUT ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BLEED
EVERYTHING TOGETHER. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT, AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS, BUT TIMING IS EVERYTHING BECAUSE TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REVOLVE AROUND IT.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMS ON SATURDAY AND
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT
FOR KABR AND KATY. KPIR AND KMBG WITH HAVE MVFR CEILINGS DUE TO
LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH KMBG FORECAST TO HAVE
CEILINGS INCREASE TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AS THE
LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OUT. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR ON AND OFF LIGHT
SNOW AT KMBG DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND KPIR HAS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW TONIGHT.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...12
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...12
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