873
FXUS63 KABR 300532
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1132 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY.
- THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
EVENT, MAINLY IN AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 212.
- THERE IS A 45-95% CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FROM SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WARM UP TO ABOVE
FREEZING HEADING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY CAUSING
SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE ENDING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (~40%
CHANCE OF 0.01 TO 0.04IN; ~20% CHANCE OF 0.05IN OR MORE) OF
FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL, THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS (PROBABILITIES
REGISTER HIGHEST FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS) TO RESIDE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
LIGHT SNOW ECHOES ON RADAR TRYING TO WORK DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SD THIS EVENING WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN
ND/EASTERN MT. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS IT TO AN END A
BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT WE ORIGINALLY HAD EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS,
ONLY ANTICIPATE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AT BEST WEST RIVER OVERNIGHT.
OVERCAST SKIES COVER CENTRAL SD WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE JAMES
VALLEY AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SD. HOWEVER, ANOTHER BAND
OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST INTO OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES FROM SOUTHEAST ND AND WESTERN MN, THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DRIER AND COLDER AIR MASS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIP HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH IT. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBS AND GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
AT 2 PM CST, LOTS OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. BUT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SNOW APPEARS TO HAVE
FINALLY ENDED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES, LIKE YESTERDAY, RANGE
FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA TO THE LOW 20S OVER THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THE NEXT LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS SLATED TO START RAMPING UP ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST ZONES LATER TONIGHT AFTER 00Z.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT'S EVENT, NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH IN THE
ENSEMBLES/PROBABILITY DATASETS SUGGESTING MUCH MORE THAN A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A COLD FRONT
BACKDOORING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. AND THE BAND OF
STRATUS CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE FRONT COULD END UP GENERATING SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AIR MAYBE 5-10C DEGREES COLDER AT 925HPA WILL BE SWEEPING DOWN
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. BY 00Z SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL WAA APPEARS TO BE TAKING
BACK OVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THE PERIOD OPENS SATURDAY MORNING WITH A THIRD LIGHT SNOW EVENT IN 4
DAYS EXPECTED TO BE RAPIDLY SPINNING UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE RATHER LOW PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A MUCH STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING OR SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. QPF/SNOW PROBABILITIES STILL LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF THE MEASUREMENT SCALE, WITH 0.10IN OF WATER EQUIVALENT
LOOKING DO-ABLE; GENERALLY 1-2INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
STILL SEEING A WARMING TREND IN THE MODELS/VARIOUS ENSEMBLE DATASETS
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE THE FREQUENT, BUT BRIEF,
BACK DOOR COLD FROPA'S FORECAST TO HAPPEN BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WAA IS SUPPOSED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CWA ON
SATURDAY, AND THEN RESUME ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
AN MVFR LAYER IS MOVING THROUGH KABR/KATY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A LAYER CLOSER TO KMBG/KPIR IS RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AS WELL. WILL SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...07
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