151
FXUS63 KABR 301117
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
517 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY.
- SYSTEM SATURDAY BRINGS STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH FOR THE FAVORED SISSETON HILLS DOWNSLOPE AREAS.
- PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW SATURDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOCALLY COULD SEE A
SWITCH TO FREEZING RAIN WITH A GLAZE POSSIBLE. DESPITE WINDS,
REDUCED VISIBILITY MOSTLY LIMITED TO WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS/LOWS 5 TO
15 ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
JUST SOME FLURRIES/DIAMOND DUST IN THE STRATUS LAYER BACKING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING, WITH PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WEST RIVER
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A 1045+ MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS HEADED
DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY, MEANING COLDER AIR IS BACKING
INTO THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. A LACK OF SNOW COVER MEANS WE'LL STILL
SEE SOME DIURNAL TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES, BUT THE NBM IS STILL
ONLY SUPPORTING A FEW HOURS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE AFTERNOON.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE THAT DROPS IN FOR LATER
SATURDAY. WHILE NBM IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH POPS AND AROUND 0.1" OF
QPF, NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THAT COMING OFF THE 1045MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A DEEP, DRY AIRMASS. THE NORTH SOUTH TROUGH, WITH
FORCING STACKED, MEANS THAT MUCH OF THE TIME SPENT SATURATING WILL
LIMIT DURATION OF PRECIPITATION. THUS, NAM BUFKIT LIKEWISE ONLY GIVES
GIVE OR TAKE 6 HOURS OF LIFT AND SATURATION, WITH ONLY ABOUT 5-10
MICROBARS CENTERED AROUND 700MB (BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE).
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FORCING, WITH A LOSS OF ICE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND A WARM LAYER OFF THE SURFACE APPROACHING 0C THERE MAY
BE A TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION IN A NARROW RIBBON WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE GROUND WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN
COLD REGARDLESS OF TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
ARCTIC COLD.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 0.1" OF QPF OVERALL IS ON THE ORDER OF 50-70%.
THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES IS ALSO ON THE
ORDER OF 0.1" TO UPWARDS OF 0.2" MEANINGS THERE'S STILL A LOT OF
RANGE POTENTIAL WITH THE SYSTEM. THE 25TH 75TH RANGE FOR SNOWFALL IS
ONLY 1" TO 2" TOTAL HOWEVER, SO REGARDLESS ITS NOT A SIGNIFICANT
SNOW MAKER. ICE POTENTIAL, WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS, IS
ALSO RATHER LOW, WITH JUST A 20-40% PROBABILITY IN EXCESS OF 0.01",
MAINLY FOCUSED EAST OF FAITH TO EAGLE BUTTE AND NORTH TO ISABEL.
THUS, MAINLY LOOKING AT MINOR IMPACTS OVERALL BUT A SYSTEM WORTH
MONITORING REGARDLESS.
THE OTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS THE WIND. NOT MUCH
BLOWABLE SNOW OUT THERE AT THIS TIME, WITH MOST OF THE STANDING SNOW
UP OVER THE SISSETON HILLS REGION. EVEN THEN WE'VE HAD SOME
DOWNSLOPES RECENTLY WITH THE BLOWING SNOW ASPECT I WOULD RATE AS
UNDERWHELMING. THERE IS A STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
AND THIS WEAK TROUGH, ON THE ORDER OF 12-16MB ACROSS THE STATE.
PRESSURE FALLS ARE UPWARDS OF 10MB IN 6 HOURS. 1/2KM WINDS TOP OUT
AROUND 45KTS UP IN THE SISSETON HILLS AS WELL. PROFILES SHOW A
STRONG INVERSION AND WARM ADVECTION THOUGH, SO LAMINAR FLOW EAST
RIVER WITH A LOWER EFFICIENCY OF MIXING. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR
A DOWNSLOPE THOUGH, WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY SEEING +40KTS IN
THAT CRITICAL LAYER. AS FOR AN ASSESSMENT OF BLOWING SNOW, ITS
PROBABLY LIMITED TO JUST AS THE SNOW IS FALLING AND LOW DRIFTING
OTHERWISE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
AT 00Z SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WITH
THE WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL SD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE
ACROSS EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY 12Z SUNDAY, AS THE LOW
CLIPS NORTHERN MN. THE WARM AIR INTRUSION WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION, WITH
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL SD AT 06Z SUNDAY. COLDER AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS AND EAST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU OF
NORTHEASTERN SD LOOK TO KEEP SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE
THERE. EXPECT CHANGES TO THE THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WITH THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SNOW LINE SHIFTING FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
STILL, THE ENSEMBLES DO GIVE CONFIDENCE TO FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED ON
THE ECMWF VERTICAL PROFILES WITH WELL ABOVE 0F TEMPERATURES AT 900MB
AT 00Z SUNDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION OR IF DRIER AIR CAN WIN OUT.
LIGHT ICING OF AROUND 0.05 OR LESS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM ABERDEEN TO MOBRIDGE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE AROUND 10:1 OVER NORTHEASTERN SD SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOWFALL OF
AROUND 1-2", HIGHEST OVER WEST CENTRAL SD WHERE COLD AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE A BIT LONGER AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 30S SUNDAY.
A 1030-1036MB HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE COOLEST AIR OF THE WEEK BRIEFLY MOVING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ONE LOOKS LIMITED, WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT, THERE ISN'T ANY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY
FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES MONDAY (LOW TO MID 20S OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD), ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, AND MID
30S OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU AND EAST. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING CANADIAN LOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
THE LOW SINKING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
SO EXPECT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST SPECIFICS FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A LAYER OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS, BUT
IS CLEARING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST, EVENTUALLY
CLEARING ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. WINDS
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEAST BUT SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...06
AVIATION...07
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