778
FXUS63 KABR 302355 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
555 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACROSS THE SISSETON HILLS DOWNSLOPE AREAS, THE SATURDAY WEATHER
EVENT SHOULD BRING STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POTENTIALLY
WHILE IT IS SNOWING. BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED.
- PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW SATURDAY THROUGHOUT
AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THROUGHOUT AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY, PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS SNOW BUT ENDS UP MIXING
WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. DRIFTING TO OCCASIONALLY BLOWING SNOW IS
EXPECTED WHERE IT SNOWS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE 7
DAY FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
AT 2 PM CST, SKIES ARE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS HAVE AN EAST
COMPONENT TO THEM AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
BRINGING A WAA-FORCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM THE EARLY MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME ON
SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL CENTER RIGHT AROUND 0.5IN TO
1IN OF SNOW AND ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO NEARLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ICE ACCUMULATION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS POTENTIAL MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES.
FURTHER EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION OVER INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, THE PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD BE FALLING AS SNOW
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PROBABILITIES CENTER RIGHT AROUND 1IN TO 1.5IN OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WAA NOSE OVER-REACHES
FARTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, IN WHICH CASE, SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
SCENARIO THAT WILL NEED SOME FURTHER SCRUTINY, MOVING FORWARD. ALSO,
THAT DOWNSLOPE WIND SIGNAL IN LOW LEVEL WAA/THERMAL INVERSION AND
SEMI-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN/ABOVE THE MEAN STATE CRITICAL LAYER
STILL POINTS TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN THE
DOWNSLOPE WIND CORRIDOR OF 30 MPH OR HIGHER, AND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR
HIGHER. IF THIS PANS OUT WHILE IT IS SNOWING, IT WON'T REALLY MATTER
WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS PRE-EXISTING SNOW ON THE GROUND TO BLOW
AROUND. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND WINDS THAT STRONG WOULD
GENERATE ISOLATED/MAINLY RURAL POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN FALLING/BLOWING SNOW. ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THIS POTENTIAL ALL ALONG THE DOWNSLOPE WIND CORRIDOR.
ELSEWHERE, LOW LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION COVERAGE SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD DOWN SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GUSTS ON SATURDAY
TO SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
AND, THIS DOES ACTIVATE SOME GROUND LEVEL DRIFTING TO OCCASIONAL
ACTUAL BLOWING SNOW ON SATURDAY IN LOCATIONS OTHER THAN THE LEE-OF-
THE-PRAIRIE COTEAU.
ALSO, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN PERSISTS ALL
THE WAY ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT, SUCH THAT SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES (A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND) FOR "SATURDAY" IN AND EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PROBABLY DON'T END UP HAPPENING UNTIL
BETWEEN 6 PM CST SATURDAY AND MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
WARMING POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM CST SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
CAA/PRESSURE RISES DON'T APPEAR TO GET GOING UNTIL DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. SO, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NON-
DIURNAL (COOLING) TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE ENTIRE PERIOD CONTINUES THIS UNCHANGED PATTERN OF UPPER RIDGE IN
THE WEST/UPPER TROF IN THE EAST. SO, WHENEVER THERE IS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE REGION, IT IS MOISTURE-
STARVED/NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, AS IT WORKS
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. ONE SUCH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WORK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY (STILL SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS). OTHERWISE,
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DRY AND EXPECTED TO SHOWCASE SOME
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (ENS 850HPA S.A. ANOMALIES TABLE POINTING
TO 850HPA TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE LONE CAVEAT HERE BEING
THAT IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THERE WILL STILL BE THE
OCCASIONAL BACK-DOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT BRIEFLY INTERRUPTS
THE LOW LEVEL WARMING PATTERN, BEFORE WAA PUSHES BACK, SCOURING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OVER TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT
MID MORNING SATURDAY. THEN, MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AT KPIR/KMBG
INITIALLY IN LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A
MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AT KABR AROUND MIDDAY AND MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AT KATY IN LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KPIR/KMBG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. KABR/KMBG WILL SEE SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AROUND LATE MORNING AND
MIDDAY AND PEAK AROUND 30-35 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CST /6 AM MST/ TO 5 PM CST /4
PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 2 PM CST /1
PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR SDZ033>035-045-048.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...VIPOND
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...VIPOND
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