197
FXUS63 KABR 010238 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
838 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SISSETON HILLS, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINING WITH
THE FALLING SNOW MAY RESULT IN BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO
A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
- THE LINE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING, WITH THE LAST OF THE SNOW EXITING WEST
CENTRAL MN BY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO
POTENTIALLY TWO INCHES POSSIBLE, HIGHEST FOR WEST CENTRAL MN.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
7-DAY FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 827 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A FEW HOURS AGO, THERE WAS A CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THAT FAVORED FREEZING RAIN/SLEET, WHICH IS
WHERE THE SECOND BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
THROUGH, WHILE THE LEAD BAND OF SNOW WAS MOVING OVER INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RECEIVED CONFIRMATION NEAR HOVEN, SD OF THIS
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OCCURRENCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS
HANDLED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, GIVEN THE SWIFT MOVEMENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION AND GENERAL LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HAPPENING. SINCE THEN, THE LEAD BAND OF SNOW HAS
COMPLETELY LEFT THE FAR EASTERN CWA AND THIS SECOND BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS WHAT IS NOW WORKING OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
OVER ONTO THE COTEAU REGION AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT IS ENDED. NOW JUST
DEALING WITH THE INTERACTION OF FALLING SNOW AND THE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS OCCURRING IN THE LEE-OF-THE-COTEAU THIS EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH STILL NOTED
ON AND EAST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU AND THIS NEXT ROUND OF BANDED
SNOW MOVING IN, OPTED TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY (AND BRIEF
LOWERED VISIBILITY IN FALLING/BLOWING SNOW LANGUAGE) IN TIME A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO 11 PM CST NOW. UPDATES ARE OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
AS OF 200PM, THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH AT 15Z, WAS OVER
WESTERN SD. WE DID HAVE A BIT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF CORSON AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH STANLEY COUNTIES, PER OBS AND
WEBCAMS. THE MAIN LINE OF FALLING SNOW IS MAINLY EAST OF THE MO
RIVER WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER OUR FAR WESTERN
CWA. QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT AS TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS AND 20S AHEAD OF IT WITH
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA COUNTIES IN THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT! THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE ONGOING SNOW CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST
OVER THE JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITHIN THE SNOW BAND AS WELL AS
BEHIND IT, CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT, AS IT TRACKS EAST. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE FORMATION, TIMING, AND
AREAL COVERAGE.
BY 00Z THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL SD,
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IN CANADA. CAMS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SNOW LINE CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OF 60-
90% JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY (MODEL
DEPENDING). 850/925MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO STAY AT OR BELOW 0C
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING HERE. SO
MAIN PTYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW. FURTHER WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL
SD (AND FAR WESTWARD OF THE JRV) AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT, AND EITHER
ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF SNOW OR BEHIND IT, ONGOING FREEZING
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AS SOUNDINGS AT KPIR/KMBG DO
SHOW THIS LOSS OF ICE ALOFT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ONGOING LIFT
AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION WHILE SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING. A FEW OF THE CAMS BACK THIS UP AND DO SHOW LINGERING
"SPECKLES' OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES OVER THIS AREA AS WELL WITH
EC METEOGRAMS INDICATING ABOUT A 15% CHANCE AT KPIR AND 10% AT
KMBG AT 00Z. NBM PTYPE INDICATES A 10-20% OF FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE. OVERALL GRIDS DO A GOOD JOB HIGHLIGHTING THIS
POTENTIAL BUT DID EXTEND SLIGHT POPS WESTWARD TO CATCH THIS. THERE
IS A SPREAD IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ON TIMING OF THIS DRYING ALOFT
(LOSING ICE NUCLEATION AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION), SO THIS
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. AS WE GET CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, THE WARMER
AIR ALOFT SPREADS EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONT TRACKS EAST. FEW OF
THE CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
EITHER MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW OR OCCURRING BEHIND THE SNOW LINE
OVER THE JRV AND EASTWARD. SOUNDINGS SHOW AT KABR, WE START TO
LOSE THE ICE NUCLEATION ALOFT/DRIER AIR CLOSER AND AFTER 06Z WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ICE NUCLEATION ALOFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD
THROUGH 12Z. METEOGRAMS REALLY DROP OFF WITH 5% OR LESS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER CENTRAL SD BY THIS TIME WITH ANYWHERE FROM
5-15% FOR ABERDEEN AND EASTWARD. SO AT 06Z NBM PTYPE OF FREEZING
PRECIP IS 10-25% JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD WITH PTYPE OF SNOW AT
60-80% COTEAU AND EASTWARD. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LAST OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCE (15-20%) OVER THE COTEAU AROUND AND A
LITTLE AFTER 12Z WHILE PTYPE IS MAJORITY SNOW EAST OF HERE. DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE, NO HEADLINE OR SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE. AN SPS MAY BE NEEDED IF WE DO START GETTING
REPORTS. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 00Z-18Z SUNDAY, IS A TRACE TO
POTENTIALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW, HIGHEST OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH A
GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JAMES VALLEY AND
EASTWARD THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
COTEAU, PER SOUTHWEST WINDS (DOWNSLOPE EFFECT) WHERE GUSTS COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH 50 MPH IN LOCALIZED AREAS (ESPECIALLY PEEVER)
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW MAY
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY. VISIBILITY COULD DROP
DOWN TO A 1/2 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE THROUGH THE MORNING THE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
AS THE WIND SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY.
THE COLD FRONT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY,
WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CANADA, INTO MONDAY. THE CWA WILL BE WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS HIGH AND LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST (ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY ALOFT) MAY
RESULT IN THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (30-50%) MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT WITH TEMPS NEAR SUNRISE OVERALL IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S, WARMEST
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S JRV
AND EASTWARD WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S/30S WEST OF HERE. WARMER TEMPS
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS WAA FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY COULD POTENTIALLY RANGE IN THE 40S
AND 50S!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR/MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN SNOW, FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT KABR/KATY
TERMINALS. THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
RELEGATED MAINLY TO KABR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING AS A
SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION WORKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL BE A THREAT, AS WELL, AT THESE TWO
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS PERSIST.
ONCE PRECIPITATION ENDS, VFR VSBYS SETTLE IN, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND. ALSO, EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND,
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS.
KPIR/KMBG SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD AND
PREDOMINANTLY VFR FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SUNDAY, BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO BACK INTO THE REGION
CAN HAPPEN.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL EXISTS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-021-
023.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...10
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