311
FXUS63 KABR 010823
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
223 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE 7-
DAY FORECAST.
- THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
TYPE OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN,
FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA, UNDER A NORTH SOUTH LINE OF STRATUS EAST
OF THE JAMES VALLEY. IN NORTH DAKOTA, ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS IS
PIVOTING SOUTHWARDS, MEANING THE AREA OF CLEARING ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT MIGRATES EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE WE WILL JUST HAVE THIS MILD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF
CANADA EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS AND TONIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY. COULD
BE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS WEST RIVER UNDER THIS HIGH. THIS IS ALSO
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME COOLER AIR, ALBEIT MUCH MILDER IN COMPARISON
TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS FOR MONDAY. P-TYPE IS PRIMARILY SNOW, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE WITH A WARM NOSE VERY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING
MARK UP AROUND 800MB. A DEEPER DIVE INTO NAM PROFILES IS AN
INTERMITTENT LACK OF ICE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WELL INTO THE
AREA WHERE THE P-TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE
NBM AS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY JUST MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTH OF THE CWA
AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER WESTERN SD AT 00Z TUESDAY,
WITH A 1030MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE 500MB TROUGH WILL BE
SET UP OVER THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING, WITH
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION LOCATED AT OR SLIGHT ABOVE THE BEST MOISTURE
LAYER. WHILE ABERDEEN LOOKS TO STAY COLD ENOUGH TO STAY SNOW,
SEVERAL LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL SD WILL SEE A WARM INTRUSION OF AIR
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN, OR FREEZING RAIN, ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS
POINT WE'LL HAVE TO SEE WHERE THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(UP TO AROUND 0.05" LIQUID) SETS UP. THE IDEA HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH A
SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THAT WERE ABOVE FREEZING OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD
FALL BELOW FREEZING BY 09Z TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
15Z TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION LINGERING PAST 12-18Z,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL CROSS MN MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AND
INTO IA INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND A TROUGH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND PUSH A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN 40S FOR MOST FOLKS,
WHILE UPPER 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU AND LOW 50S FOR
SEVERAL AREAS WEST OF THE MO RIVER. MIXING THURSDAY COULD HELP BRING
DOWN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR AS WINDS GUST 25-35 MPH. A 500MB TROUGH
CLIPPING OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES (ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH)
COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT AT THIS POINT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND ACROSS MN SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST, AS THEY MAY BE
LEANING CLOSER TO OUR COOLER TRENDS AS OF LATE. STAY TUNED.
THE COLD FRONT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN OVER THE CWA SUNDAY,
WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER CANADA, INTO MONDAY. THE CWA WILL BE WITHIN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST (ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY
ALOFT) MAY RESULT IN THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (30-50%)
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT WITH TEMPS NEAR SUNRISE OVERALL IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S, WARMEST
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S JRV
AND EASTWARD WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S/30S WEST OF HERE. WARMER TEMPS
THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS WAA FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
RIDGE ALOFT. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY COULD POTENTIALLY RANGE IN THE 40S
AND 50S!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A LAYER OF MVFR CIGS WITH MAINLY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY FOR
KATY/KABR. THESE CIGS WILL BACK INTO KMBG/KPIR LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD, AND LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...06
AVIATION...07
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