838
FXUS63 KABR 022132
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
332 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. MIXED PRECIP (RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD, BUT ONLY A LIGHT GLAZE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, MINOR/LIMITED IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
- WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES (20-30%) FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL UNDER AN INCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
- EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (BY 5 TO 20 DEGREES) WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST AIR WILL BE
OVERHEAD THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WHILE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. CONTINUE TO SEE
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, WITH MORE UPSTREAM ACROSS ND SET TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EXISTS
ACROSS CENTRAL SD IN THE FORM OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN, ALTHOUGH ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH LIMITED
IMPACTS. SAME WITH SNOWFALL, GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1
INCH EXPECTED AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING OTHER THAN MINOR IMPACTS
FROM THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
STILL DEALING WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS
WELL, WITH SIGNS POINTING TO THIS STICKING AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. IN FACT, REINFORCEMENTS IN CLOUD COVER MAY BE ARRIVING
TOMORROW SO LOOKING AT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SHORT TERM PERIOD. INCREASED
SKY COVER A BIT IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT AGAIN IT'S JUST A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ONLY
MINOR/LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY IS A DRY ONE, WITH A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
FOCUS IS STILL ON THE WARMING TEMPERATURES SET TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MID/LATE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STILL APPEARS THE PEAK
IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THURSDAY, WITH GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWING
+10C TO +15C ACROSS CENTRAL SD BY 00Z FRIDAY. INHERITED NBM HIGH
TEMPS SHOW WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN FLIRTING
WITH 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
FOG IS HANGING ON SO FAR THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA, BRINGING LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES, DOWN
TO IFR AND AT TIMES, LIFR LEVELS. THIS FOG MAY HANG ON FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, DISSIPATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE FOG IS
PRESENT, VISIBILITY MAY CONTINUE TO INTERMITTENTLY DROP BELOW 1
MILE.
THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN COMES IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND LOW CLOUDS
(BOTH DOWN TO IFR LEVELS) ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TONIGHT, WILL SOME FLURRIES LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
THAT POINT, BUT IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...BC
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