550
FXUS63 KABR 030925
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES OR A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN
THE MISSOURI RIVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, WITH THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION BEING LESS THAN 20%.
- THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS EVENING NEAR AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. EXPECT LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST (BY 5 TO 20 DEGREES)
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MOISTURE DIMINISHES IN THE PRIMARY SNOW GROWTH REGION AFTER 18Z
TODAY AT ABERDEEN, AFTER 21Z OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SD AND IS ALREADY
OUT OVER CENTRAL SD. A LOOK AT AREA WEBCAMS WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING
WEST OF REDFIELD DOES SUPPORT THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS. THE FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW (CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF AROUND 15% OR LESS) WILL
CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU OF
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE WEATHER MAP SHOWS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. WHILE MUCH OF THE
AREA IS UNDER A THICK STRATUS DECK, THE DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE
HIGH IS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER
OUR 3 NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST, WITH THE AREA OF CLEAR SKY IN FLUX. THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN BY 15Z WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF MN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND OVER IA/WI TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND 500MB WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ONLY 30%, WITH LITTLE
TO NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED (LESS THAN A HALF INCH). WARMER
AIR NEAR AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN,
OR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN MT/WY AT 06Z SWINGS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
EXPECTED TODAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BACK INTO A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME, WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING TO THE WEST. THE RIDGE
DOESN'T EVER PROGRESS TO OVERHEAD, HOWEVER IT DOES DIRECT THE FLOW
OFF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THUS, EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A CLIPPER LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THE LATEST EC BACKS OFF
ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE CANADIAN ALSO SHOWING JUST
A WEAK WAVE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH AT THIS POINT, BUT THERE
IS STILL MUCH TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND THE SYSTEM WHICH IS
STILL OUT OVER THE ALEUTIANS HAS ANOTHER 72 HOURS BEFORE WE EVEN
BEGIN TO TALK OUT IT TRAVERSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. REGARDLESS, DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A MOISTURE PRODUCER
WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN PRODUCING 0.01-0.02" OF
MOISTURE. NOR DOES IT HAVE MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH MUCH
INFLUENCE ON WINDS OR TEMPERATURES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WE SEE THE ARCTIC FRONT
SLIP BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE COLDEST AIR
DIRECTED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THE WARMEST AIRMASS GOES THROUGH
MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND +10C, ABOUT A STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO. THE RIDGE TO THE WEST GETS SUPPRESSED
THEREAFTER INDICATING A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE HOWEVER WE'RE
GETTING PRETTY FAR OUT THERE TO HAZARD WHAT KIND OF PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW OR WHETHER IT WILL STICK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
THE MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MVFR CIGS MOVE BACK IN DURING THE EVENING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...20
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