282
FXUS63 KABR 162346 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
546 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN TUESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE TO SEE TWO INCHES OF SNOW OR
MORE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH
CHANCES DECREASING MOVING NORTHEAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
SFC RIDGING POKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER REGION
TODAY AS HELD ON LONG ENOUGH TO GIVE OUR FORECAST AREA ANOTHER DRY
AND MILD DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL SPILL OVER INTO
TONIGHT AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT OUT INTO
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP AID THIS
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED ON IT TO DRIFT
EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST FROM WESTERN SD TUESDAY MORNING INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL IN INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PARTS OF THE CWA MAY SEE AN INITIAL BOUT OF
DRIZZLE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY PER LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES BEFORE THE
ENTIRE COLUMN SATURATES THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY LEADING TO MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SPC ACTUALLY OUTLOOKS NORTHEAST
SD/WEST CENTRAL MN FOR GENERAL THUNDER ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE DOES
HINT AT SOME LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SD INTO EAST CENTRAL SD, SO GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS
UPPER WAVE, IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION OR AT LEAST SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL SITUATION THAT WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS IT PRODUCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NARROW WINDOW OF DEVELOPING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING REMAIN RATHER LOW(20-30%) ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF JONES/LYMAN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. WITH THE TIMING OF WINDS SWITCHING AROUND FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING AS THEY DO SO
DOESN'T OCCUR UNTIL THE EVENING WHEN RH VALUES WILL ALREADY BE
RECOVERING FROM THEIR MIN VALUES OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO WATCH IN CASE THE TIMING CHANGES
THOUGH. QPF VALUES STILL SHAKE OUT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES WITH HIGHEST VALUE ACROSS NORTHEAST SD/WEST CENTRAL MN WITH
UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS HAS MUCH AS BETWEEN A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKING
IN ON THE BACKSIDE OR WRAP-AROUND PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSITION THE RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT OF THE WARM AIR WINNING OUT THE LONGEST, ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH FROM NORTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTHEAST SD AND
WEST CENTRAL MN. PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PRAIRIE
COTEAU COULD PICK UP AROUND 1 INCH.
AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
UP TO 30-40 MPH. LOCALIZED GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH COULD BE POSSIBLE
STILL AND WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POTENTIAL WIND
HEADLINE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS DIMINISH THOUGH BY THE LATTER
HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE COLD ADVECTION
ISN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THAT TIME. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE PRECIP BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH THAT WHEN PRECIP DOES
SHOW UP ON THURSDAY, IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES TRACK THE BETTER ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS KEEP MOST OF THE
FALLING/ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF SEEING GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
HIGHEST ACROSS THOSE ZONES(ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 14) AND
CURRENTLY RANGES FROM 30-40 PERCENT. SO, THE LATEST TRENDS AMONG THE
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SHIFTING A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST
WITH THE SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD UNTIL
THE VERY END (LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON) WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEATHER SYSTEM, WHICH MAY ALSO BRING AREAS OF -RA OR
EVEN -SHRA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO NEED TO MENTION LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...TMT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page