409
FXUS63 KABR 170823
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
223 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN SD AND
WESTERN MN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THEIR PEAK, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45-50MPH. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE TO SEE TWO INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH CHANCES
DECREASING MOVING NORTHEAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS. THERE WILL BE
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY, BUT SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO THE SEVERITY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A SHARP GRADIENT IN DEW
POINTS, UP TO THE 40S OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE 20S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (THE LATTER SUPPORTING MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY AROUND 20%. THERE UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM WHERE THE FRONT
WILL LINE UP, AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS MET (GIVEN WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MILES PER HOUR IN
THAT AREA). AT THE MOMENT, PARTS OF JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES MAY SEE
THOSE LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QPF TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA (AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY), DECREASING TO LITTLE TO NO LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAJORITY RAIN, BUT THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FACILITATE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWN, WITH NOW JUST A COUPLE OF TENTHS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, FALLING SNOW COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
POST-FRONTAL WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PICK UP WITH HELP FROM A LOW-
LEVEL JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT LEVEL OF MIXING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ENABLING SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR BROAD
COVERAGE OF 45+ MPH WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, SO A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST TONIGHT THROUGH 12 PM CST
WEDNESDAY WEST OF BROWN AND SPINK COUNTIES, AND FROM 12 AM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN AND SPINK EASTWARD
(EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MINNESOTA COUNTIES). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL JET PROGRESS TO THE EAST. STRONG WINDS MAY
HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON, AS HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER PARTS OF JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THESE
WINDS DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, THIS TIME AS SNOW, IS EXPECTED TO
FALL OVER THE AREA, SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH INCREASED COVERAGE
OF 2+ INCHES NOW EXPECTED. MEDIAN SNOWFALL VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY
HAVE JUMPED AS HIGH AS 4" OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MILES PER HOUR WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
AT TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE
WAY TO MVFR CIGS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
IN. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF -SHRA/SHRA ARCING FROM NORTHERN
THROUGH NORTHEAST SD, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMBG/KABR/KATY. CANNOT RULE
OUT MVFR VSBY WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ALSO FORECAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY MORNING AND
INSERTED MENTION OF THIS WHERE APPROPRIATE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
/11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-
033>037-045-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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