526
FXUS63 KABR 171126 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
526 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN SD
AND WESTERN MN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THEIR PEAK, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
45-50MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE TO SEE TWO INCHES OF SNOW OR
MORE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH
CHANCES DECREASING MOVING NORTHEAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE 50S
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS. THERE WILL BE
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY, BUT SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO THE SEVERITY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A SHARP GRADIENT IN DEW
POINTS, UP TO THE 40S OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE 20S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (THE LATTER SUPPORTING MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY AROUND 20%. THERE UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM WHERE THE FRONT
WILL LINE UP, AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS MET (GIVEN WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MILES PER HOUR IN
THAT AREA). AT THE MOMENT, PARTS OF JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES MAY SEE
THOSE LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. QPF TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA (AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY), DECREASING TO LITTLE TO NO LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAJORITY RAIN, BUT THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FACILITATE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWN, WITH NOW JUST A COUPLE OF TENTHS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, FALLING SNOW COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
POST-FRONTAL WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PICK UP WITH HELP FROM A LOW-
LEVEL JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT LEVEL OF MIXING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ENABLING SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR BROAD
COVERAGE OF 45+ MPH WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, SO A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST TONIGHT THROUGH 12 PM CST
WEDNESDAY WEST OF BROWN AND SPINK COUNTIES, AND FROM 12 AM CST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN AND SPINK EASTWARD
(EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MINNESOTA COUNTIES). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL JET PROGRESS TO THE EAST. STRONG WINDS MAY
HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON, AS HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER PARTS OF JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THESE
WINDS DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, THIS TIME AS SNOW, IS EXPECTED TO
FALL OVER THE AREA, SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH INCREASED COVERAGE
OF 2+ INCHES NOW EXPECTED. MEDIAN SNOWFALL VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY
HAVE JUMPED AS HIGH AS 4" OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MILES PER HOUR WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
AT TIMES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON TODAY AS WELL. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL ALSO BE
AREAS OF -RA/RA DEVELOPING/ARCING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL
(KPIR/KMBG) SOUTH DAKOTA, ON ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST SD
(KABR/KATY). CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR VSBY WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA (MAINLY THE KABR TERMINAL) OVERNIGHT. AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SUPPOSED TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AS WELL.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
/11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-
033>037-045-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...10
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