175
FXUS63 KABR 172102
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
302 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-80%) RETURN TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN SD
AND WESTERN MN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NORTHEAST SD.
- WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THEIR PEAK, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
45-50MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE TO SEE TWO INCHES OF SNOW OR
MORE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH
CHANCES DECREASING MOVING NORTHEAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS. WE'VE ALREADY SEEN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD TODAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, A SFC LOW ANCHORED ON A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SD TONIGHT. DYNAMIC LIFT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, WE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. NOT EXPECTED ANY ROBUST CONVECTION TO CAUSE ANY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER, BUT GUSTY LOCALIZED WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST, THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL SD WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT UP TO 40-50 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR SD ZONES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD AND PROGRESSIVELY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE 925MB 0C LINE SHIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME AND SETTLES ALONG AND WEST-EAST
ORIENTED LINE FROM ABOUT THE US HWY 212 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES
WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW DURING
THIS TIME. THE TIME OF TRANSITION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE
CRITICAL TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST HI-RES/CAM GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THIS TRANSITION TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WED AND BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN. THIS STILL GIVES OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES A TRACE UP
TO CLOSE TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD FACING SLOPES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER LONGER
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES. IF THIS WILL TO MATERIALIZE, SOME HIGHER
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS FROM WHAT WE'RE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. SO, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME BUILT IN
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SITUATION.
EVENTUALLY, BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND ENDING. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME S/W RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT UPPER
WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK KEEPING THE
BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST. SNOWFALL PROBS OF 1 INCH OR MORE HAVE DECLINED
ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. SO MUCH SO THAT ANY PROBABILITIES OF 30
PERCENT OR HIGHER OR CONFINED TO MOST LOCALES ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
HWY 212. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THOUGH
FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ANY
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO COME TO AN END BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE JUST LEFT WITH DRY AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD FOR THE MOST PART AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH KABR/KATY COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BECOME MORE COMMON ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH KPIR PERHAPS RETURNING TO VFR THE EARLIEST AT
SOME POINT LATER ON TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
ALL TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMBG BETWEEN 06Z-09Z
AND CLOSER TO 09Z-12Z AT KABR/KATY. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF AT KMBG AROUND MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD OF KABR/KATY.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25-45 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME RELAXATION OF THESE AT KPIR/KMBG BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AT KPIR/KMBG BY MID EVENING AND
TURN GUSTY ONCE AGAIN UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST
BREEZES AROUND 25-35 KNOTS WILL PERSIST AT KABR/KATY INTO THE LATE
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY MAINTAINING THOSE WIND SPEEDS.
WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
/11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-
033>037-045-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...VIPOND
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