402
FXUS63 KABR 180153 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
753 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-80%) RETURN TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN SD
AND WESTERN MN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NORTHEAST SD.
- WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THEIR PEAK, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
45-50MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE TO SEE TWO INCHES OF SNOW OR
MORE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH
CHANCES DECREASING MOVING NORTHEAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SHOWERS JUST RECENTLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE BEGINNING TOO
QUICKLY IN THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING AND HAD ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD AND BLENDED UP TO HIGHER CHANCES AROUND 02Z-03Z. ALSO
SEEING STRONG WINDS MOVING OUT OF UNR AREA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CWA, PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 60-65 MPH SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS. WE'VE ALREADY SEEN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD TODAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, A SFC LOW ANCHORED ON A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SD TONIGHT. DYNAMIC LIFT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, WE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. NOT EXPECTED ANY ROBUST CONVECTION TO CAUSE ANY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER, BUT GUSTY LOCALIZED WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST, THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL SD WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT UP TO 40-50 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR SD ZONES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD AND PROGRESSIVELY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE 925MB 0C LINE SHIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME AND SETTLES ALONG AND WEST-EAST
ORIENTED LINE FROM ABOUT THE US HWY 212 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES
WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW DURING
THIS TIME. THE TIME OF TRANSITION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE
CRITICAL TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST HI-RES/CAM GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THIS TRANSITION TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WED AND BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN. THIS STILL GIVES OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES A TRACE UP
TO CLOSE TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD FACING SLOPES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER LONGER
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES. IF THIS WILL TO MATERIALIZE, SOME HIGHER
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS FROM WHAT WE'RE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. SO, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME BUILT IN
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SITUATION.
EVENTUALLY, BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND ENDING. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME S/W RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT UPPER
WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK KEEPING THE
BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST. SNOWFALL PROBS OF 1 INCH OR MORE HAVE DECLINED
ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. SO MUCH SO THAT ANY PROBABILITIES OF 30
PERCENT OR HIGHER OR CONFINED TO MOST LOCALES ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
HWY 212. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THOUGH
FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ANY
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO COME TO AN END BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE JUST LEFT WITH DRY AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR CIGS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST SD AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS FOR KABR/KMBG/KATY, BUT LEFT OUT IN
KPIR FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF -SHRA/SHRA WITH POTENTIAL MVFR VSBY AT TIMES. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, -RA/RA EXPECTED TO MIX/SWITCH TO -SN/SN
ACROSS NORTHERN SD. STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS
FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ006>008-011-018>023.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...TMT
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