163
FXUS63 KABR 180605 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1205 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-80%) RETURN TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU IN NORTHEAST SD. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THEIR PEAK, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
45-50MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE TO SEE TWO INCHES OF SNOW OR
MORE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH
CHANCES DECREASING MOVING NORTHEAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, A MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN
PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING. WHAT WAS SUPPOSED
TO BE SNOWFALL OCCURRING MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA NOW
APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING DOWN INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA FROM ~10Z TO ~21Z, WHILE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE HAPPENING. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW IS PRODUCING THE KIND OF BLOWING
SNOW CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT, AT LEAST, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR VISIBILITY REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY OUT IN OPEN/RURAL AREAS. ONCE FALLING SNOW ENDS,
THOUGH, VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVED MARKEDLY. MORE INFORMATION ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/TIMING, ETC IS ON THE WAY WITH THE NEXT
DISCUSSION UPDATE.
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SHOWERS JUST RECENTLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE BEGINNING TOO
QUICKLY IN THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING AND HAD ADJUSTED POPS
DOWNWARD AND BLENDED UP TO HIGHER CHANCES AROUND 02Z-03Z. ALSO
SEEING STRONG WINDS MOVING OUT OF UNR AREA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CWA, PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 60-65 MPH SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS. WE'VE ALREADY SEEN GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD TODAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, A SFC LOW ANCHORED ON A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SD TONIGHT. DYNAMIC LIFT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, WE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. NOT EXPECTED ANY ROBUST CONVECTION TO CAUSE ANY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER, BUT GUSTY LOCALIZED WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST, THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL SD WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT UP TO 40-50 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR SD ZONES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD AND PROGRESSIVELY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE 925MB 0C LINE SHIFTS
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME AND SETTLES ALONG AND WEST-EAST
ORIENTED LINE FROM ABOUT THE US HWY 212 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES
WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW DURING
THIS TIME. THE TIME OF TRANSITION AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL BE
CRITICAL TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST HI-RES/CAM GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THIS TRANSITION TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WED AND BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST
CENTRAL MN. THIS STILL GIVES OUR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES A TRACE UP
TO CLOSE TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU, ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD FACING SLOPES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER LONGER
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES. IF THIS WILL TO MATERIALIZE, SOME HIGHER
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS FROM WHAT WE'RE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. SO, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME BUILT IN
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SITUATION.
EVENTUALLY, BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND ENDING. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME S/W RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT UPPER
WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK KEEPING THE
BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST. SNOWFALL PROBS OF 1 INCH OR MORE HAVE DECLINED
ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA. SO MUCH SO THAT ANY PROBABILITIES OF 30
PERCENT OR HIGHER OR CONFINED TO MOST LOCALES ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
HWY 212. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THOUGH
FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ANY
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO COME TO AN END BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE JUST LEFT WITH DRY AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
AREAS OF -SHRA/SHRA AND -RA/RA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KABR/KATY
TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO -SN/SN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GENERALLY MVFR VSBY EXPECTED WITHIN
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION HAS
SWITCHED TO -SN/SN AT KMBG AND WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS BEFORE ENDING, WITH IFR VSBY POSSIBLE. KPIR WILL BE LEAST
AFFECTED BY ALL OF THIS, AND MAY IN FACT BE PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS
KPIR/KMBG AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO KABR/KATY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. ONCE
THE RAIN SWITCHES TO SNOW AT KABR/KATY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONALLY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ006>008-011-021.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ006>008-011-
018>023.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ039-046.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...VIPOND
AVIATION...10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page