325
FXUS63 KABR 190541 AAD
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1141 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW OF 1" OR LESS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
- WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY,
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
STILL SEEING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA, BUT
WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DECREASE, VISIBILITY AT ETH/VVV
GENERALLY STAYING ABOVE 2SM. HAD EARLIER LET THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EXPIRE AS IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW HAVE DIMINISHED.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE LIGHT SNOW BAND OVER THE FAR EAST
COULD PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WITH ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS MOVED FROM OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
3 COUNTIES AT 10Z TO NEAR SAUK CENTER AND TODD COUNTY, MN AT 20Z.
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW ARE ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. WINDS OUT OF
THE WNW ARE GUSTING 30-45MPH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL SD AND CLOSER TO
THE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. ELSEWHERE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING
40- 55MPH. THE AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THAT HAD BEEN SET UP
FROM AROUND AND EAST OF EUREKA THROUGH ABERDEEN HAS SHIFTED TO
EAST OF BRITTON THROUGH ORTONVILLE. LIGHT SNOW REMAINS EAST OF
THIS STRONGER BAND, WITH THE MAIN VISIBILITY RESTRICTION BEING
FROM LIGHT FALLING SNOW AND THE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN BEING
BLOWN AROUND. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE
REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, TRANSITIONING TO MORE LOW LEVEL
DRIFTING SNOW WITH LESS LOFTING/IMPACT TO VISIBILITIES THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD, WHERE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
THE 500MB LOW OVER MN WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH TO OVER ONTARIO AND
NORTHERN MN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN INTO OUR
FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN CO WILL MOVE ACROSS KS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING NORTH FRIDAY
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA, CLIPPING MAINLY JONES/LYMAN COUNTIES. OVER
NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN, THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ASSISTED BY A SERIES OF 500MB WAVES.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
A SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL SD, AND EVENTUALLY
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH ONLY A 15% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
ORIGIN REGION OF OUR HIGH, COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
25-75TH NBM PERCENTILES MAINLY WITHIN 5 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
TERMINALS KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
AN INCREASE IN MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ALREADY SEEING MVFR CIGS IN KATY AND KMBG AREAS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE'S POTENTIAL TO SEE THESE CIGS DIP
INTO IFR ALSO, BUT MAINLY AT KATY. BREEZY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...10
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